0 The headline no leader wants to see

In just 64 days, New Zealanders will go to the polls. And with the 2014 General Election looming large in their thinking, no political leader would want to wake up to a headline like this; Cunliffe a Labour liability, poll shows.

The headline tops a story written by veteran Fairfax political journalist Vernon Small. It begins thus:

Labour would get an immediate lift in the polls if it dumped leader David Cunliffe, a new poll suggests.
The stuff.co.nz/Ipsos poll reveals that Cunliffe may have become Labour's biggest liability, with a significant number of voters saying they would be more likely to vote for Labour if someone else were leader.
Click here for full poll results in graphics.
The effect is sizeable, making a 13.5 percentage point difference to Labour's vote.
Although a similar effect is seen on National when asked the same question about John Key, it is much smaller.
The finding will plunge Labour further into crisis after yesterday's poll result cementing Labour's support in the mid-20s.
Privately, Labour and the Greens now acknowledge that it would take an unprecedented swing against National to force a change of government on September 20. 

That last sentence is telling. For all the bullish talk and the relentless positivity in public, politicians are inherently realists when it comes to polls. Of seven polls in the last six weeks, only one shows Labour at greater than 30% support; the Herald DigiPoll of mid-June had Labour at a whopping 30.5%, and even that poll had National with enough support to govern alone.

Vernon Small continues, hinting at some deep concerns within Labour's caucus that make a mockery of David Cunliffe's pronouncements of unity:

Some Labour MPs were yesterday privately canvassing leadership options, even at this late stage.
But they believe Labour would be even more severely punished by such an outward sign of panic.
Labour's focus now has shifted to protecting its vote from further erosion, and preserving the seats of some of its up-and-coming stars, including Andrew Little, seen as a future leadership contender, and former teacher Kelvin Davis.
Even some of Labour's seasoned hands, including finance spokesman David Parker and frontbench MP Jacinda Ardern, could be at risk of losing their seats in Parliament if party support sank much lower.
Labour MPs are clearly convinced the party has suffered in recent weeks because of a series of headlines that took the focus away from what they saw as a successful alternative economic policy and Budget plan and a suite of popular education policies.
Those distractions included Trevor Mallard's moa resurrection, Nanaia Mahuta's musings about te reo in schools, Little's comments about the reversal of the burden of proof in relation to consent during rape trials, and being drawn into the Dotcom saga.
But they also included Cunliffe's own apology for being a man and his suggestion that opponents in the party were scabs - as well as what MPs saw as unfair treatment of his connection to property developer Donghua Liu. 

Small's revelation that Labour's focus has shifted from winning to self-preservation is telling, but not entirely unexpected; check out these photographs:

Sue Moroney has blanked out the "official" Labour Party authorisation on her billboards, and hand-written her own. As you can see in the middle photo, she has also obscured the Labour Party logo. Interestingly though, Sue Moroney is a David Cunliffe loyalist, yet she seems to want to disassociate herself from the party he leads.

And apart from the fact that Clayton Cosgrove is NOT the MP for Waimakariri as his billboard implies, his billboards are interesting to say the least. It looks as though he is distancing himself from the party under Cunliffe's leadership, as he did in 2011 when he lost Waimakariri to Kate Wilkinson. Unsurprisingly, Labour lost the party vote in Waimakariri by more than 12,000 votes, but ironically Cosgrove returned to Parliament via the Labour list, having not campaigned actively for party votes!

Labour is in crisis; so much crisis that there is even talk of David Shearer returning as leader. David Cunliffe is not going to be a happy leader when he returns from his holiday.

0 Garner on the deserting Labour MP's

Duncan Garner does a daily editorial piece on his afternoon show on RadioLive. The text is then posted on the RadioLive website.

Yesterday's piece was very interesting indeed. Under the headline Three Labour MP's say "Stuff the party - I want to win my seat" Garner opines:

Three Labour MPs have broken ranks in recent weeks – quite loudly and very publicly.
They are interested in one thing: self-preservation. They want to win their seats and they’ve given up relying on their party. They are clearly concerned Labour will poll poorly on election night, so they’ve decided to run their own campaigns – away from head office and away from the leader.
These MPs have either chosen not to be on the list or they have a low-list spot. They are vulnerable. It’s all or nothing for them.
They must win their seats to return to Parliament; this sort of pressure usually focuses an MP’s mind. They want to be back in Parliament and they want the $150k salary.
I’m talking about West Coast-Tasman MP, Damien O’Connor, Hutt South MP, Trevor Mallard and list MP and Te Tai Tokerau candidate, Kelvin Davis.
Take Davis: yesterday he engaged Labour in its biggest u-turn in years. He told me he supported the Puhoi-Wellsford road project that his party has openly mocked and criticised.
Labour MPs call it the holiday highway; David Cunliffe has campaigned against it. Labour, until yesterday, was going to can the project upon taking office. Who knows where they stand now!
Davis told me people in the north tell him they want the controversial project and so does he.

There's a very good reason why Labour doesn't hold a single electorate seat north of the Auckland Harbour Bridge; its patronising attitude to the people of Northland. And every time a Labour or Green MP utters the phrase "holiday highway", the parties leech still more votes.

The road between Puhoi and Wellsford is well below State Highway One standard, and its upgrade is long overdue. The events of the last week have shown how vital a roading lifeline in for the people of Northland.

Kelvin Davis knows that. Even though there is no guarantee that Labour will let him campaign to win in Te Tai Tokerau, Davis is going hard out to topple Hone Harawira, and all power to him.

But it's not just Davis rebelling against the party; Garner continues:

Further south in Wellington, Trevor Mallard is openly campaigning for the return of the moa – against the wishes of his party and the leadership. It’s a desperate cry for attention: Mallard needs visibility and the moa got him the headlines.
And further south again, Damien O’Connor voted with the Government 10 days ago to allow storm-damaged native trees to be harvested in protected forests.

You can probably add Te Tai Tonga MP Rino Tirakatene to the mix as well, although his tenure is less tenuous than either Trevor Mallard's or Damien O'Connor's. Mallard has gone electorate-only, and if he doesn't hold on to Hutt South on 20 September he will be looking for a job. And at #22 on Labour's list, there's no guarantee that Damien O'Connor will survive, hence his renewed efforts for his West Coast-Tasman constituents.

Garner closes, with a suggestion that those Labour MP's mentioned above are an endangered species within the "modern" Labour Party:

These three blokes are the outliers in the Labour Caucus. And they are blokes too; they need to make some noise to be heard. They clearly have issues with the tame approach within their caucus.
They want to stand out and stand for something that their electorates want (not sure that Hutt South really wants the moa back, though!).
O’Connor and Davis certainly look in touch with middle New Zealand, their electorates and their issues. They have given the one-fingered salute to their struggling party and put self-preservation first.
Who can blame them?

Indeed; who CAN blame Messrs Mallard, Davis and O'Connor for fighting for survival against a Labour Party which long ago abandoned any semblance of its origins.

We've already heard stories of Clayton Cosgrove having used billboards at the last election which excluded any mention of Phil Goff, and apparently he's doing the same again this time around. It will be interesting to see if other MP's follow a similar strategy, given that David Cunliffe was not the preferred choice as leader of around two thirds of Labour's caucus.

Garner's column does nothing to fend off rumours that the Labour Party is bitterly divided, and at war with itself. It will be interesting to see how the Mallard/Davis/O'Connor strategy plays out on 20 September.  

0 Where is the outrage?

Clayton Cosgrove has a reputation of being a bit of a brawler in the House. But there are times when he over-steps the mark.

Yesterday was one such time; check out how he began his speech in the Second Reading debate for the West Coast Wind-Blown Timber (Conservation Lands) Bill:

Not content with calling Dr Nick Smith "One flew over the cuckoo's nest" once, Cosgrove made sure he hit his target by repeating the slur.

Younger readers may wonder what the fuss is about. This might help:

One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest (1962) is a novel written by Ken Kesey. Set in an Oregon psychiatric hospital, the narrative serves as a study of the institutional processes and the human mind as well as a critique of behaviorism and a celebration of humanistic principles. Published in 1962, the novel was adapted into a Broadway play by Dale Wasserman in 1963. Bo Goldman adapted the novel for the 1975 film directed by Miloš Forman, which won five Academy Awards.
Time Magazine included the novel in its "100 Best English-language Novels from 1923 to 2005" list.^[2]

It's no secret that in the past, Dr Smith has had mental health and stress issues. It's also no secret that in the past, he has been the target of personal attacks from a number of MP's who should know better. Claire Trevett from the Herald reported this in 2007:

Ongoing attacks about MP Nick Smith's mental health - including Winston Peters calling him a "loony tune" and to "take your pills before you come down to the House" - have been criticised by mental health advocates, but Dr Smith's opponents say he gets what he asks for.
The Mental Health Foundation says it is disappointed at the attacks over Dr Smith's mental health in Parliament this week - attacks which have been an ongoing theme since he went on stress leave in 2004 after being deposed as newly appointed deputy leader of the National Party following Don Brash's election as leader.
During the exchanges, Mr Peters described Dr Smith as looking "slightly zany and slightly nutty", and, the next day, saying: "Listen, loony tune, take control of yourself. Take your pills before you come down to the House, not halfway through question time."
The exchanges were initially prompted by Dr Smith telling Mr Peters to "stop living in the past, old man" and later asking if NZ First had paid back the money it overspent at the last election.
Such calls have been a repeated refrain since 2004 - but both parties reined in their members' comments after personal comments went overboard in 2005.
However, lately the comments and snipes from Labour MPs have increased again.

Hansard records reveal references since 2005 include Annette King referring to Dr Smith as "cracked", both Ms King and Trevor Mallard telling him to "take his pills", Phil Goff suggesting he take his "medication", Clayton Cosgrove referring to him as "troppo" and Michael Cullen making references such as "long before Dr Smith needed his pills", and "big, brave Dr Smith will take his pills".
Dr Smith did not rise to Mr Peters' bait in Parliament, but when the Herald approached him yesterday said the statements were "personally derogatory and untrue".

Unsurprisingly, there has been no condemnation of Clayton Cosgrove from anyone within Labour. Nor have the Greens bothered to say anything, which IS a surprise; you'd think that someone from the Greens would have risen to Dr Smith's defence.

Of course Mr Cosgrove is no novice in the art of personal abuse. He was one of those Labour members who referred to Christopher Finlayson as "Tinkerbell". On that occasion, Green MP Kevin Hague did publicly condemn Cosgrove:

Labour's Trevor Mallard says he shouldn't have called Attorney-General Chris Finlayson "Tinkerbell'' but denies there is problem with homophobia in the party.
ACT's Wellington central candidate Stephen Whittington yesterday accused openly gay Labour MPs Grant Robertson and Charles Chauvel of covering up prejudice among their caucus.
Hutt South MP Mr Mallard likened Mr Finlayson to the Peter Pan fairy during a parliamentary debate in October 2009. Waimakariri MP Clayton Cosgrove twice called Mr Finlayson Tinkerbell in the House in July 2009.
Mr Mallard said last night: ``I certainly don't think I'm homophobic. It's a comment that was probably unfortunate and if I'd thought carefully I wouldn't have made it.''
But he wouldn't apologise. ``It was part of a series of two way offensive comments and I got quite a lot more than I received.''
It was "ridiculous'' to suggest Mr Cosgrove was anti-gay, he said. Mr Cosgrove did not respond to a request for comment.
The allegations flew after a Rainbow meeting in Wellington on Wednesday night. Mr Whittington believes both Labour MPs were denying the Tinkerbell remarks were ever made.
"I felt that they had questioned my credibility in a public forum and denied there were aspects of their party who criticised and abused MPs for being homosexual,'' he said. "I didn't think that was acceptable.''
Both Mr Robertson and Mr Mallard believe Mr Whittington was trying to divert attention from homophobic comments made by ACT's Epsom candidate John Banks a number of years ago.
"He was asked a question about John Banks. In his response, he said there are homophobic Labour MPs,'' Mr Robertson said. ``I don't believe there are.''
He added: "Of course I don't think it's a good thing for Labour MPs to call Chris Finlayson Tinkerbell. It's silly statement...With all due respect, [to] Stephen, I suspect I know more about homophobia than he does.''
Green MP Kevin Hague, who was also at the meeting, backed Mr Whittington's version of events. "My sense was that Charles and Grant were denying that Mallard and Cosgrove had abused Chris Finlayson in a homophobic way.
"The impression I had was that they were denying that he said it.''

Parliament is a robust place, but there is no excuse for abusive comments such as the one Cosgrove made yesterday. Picking on someone because they have had mental health issues is a form of workplace bullying, and there is no place for it in the Parliament.

This is a personal issue for us. As regular readers are probably aware, we have had our own mental health issues over the years. Everything is good at the moment, but we know from experience that things can change very quickly.

Clayton Cosgrove is a senior Labour MP who, if Labour became the Government, would doubtless become a senior Minister. But he is also a serial offender in the abuse stakes, and we are disappointed (but not surprised) that none of his colleagues told him to pull his head in last evening. His abuse did him and his party little credit.

0 Hope the cleaners are well paid

Whoever cleans up after Labour's list ranking meeting this weekend had better be very well paid. There's likely to be blood on the floor in what is shaping up as an acrimonious session; the Herald reports:

The Labour Party will set its party list on Sunday and most of the prime real estate on it is expected to go to women candidates as the party wrestles with its new requirement to have a caucus with at least 45 per cent women after the 2014 election.
All of the top 20 MPs in caucus have also been told to go on the list in a bid to stop any perception the male MPs are boycotting it because of that rule, which makes it harder for males to get good list slots.
The party's low polling makes the news worse for male candidates relying on the list. It is expecting to win at least 28 electorates, 5 more than at present. That will give it two more female electorate MPs than present - Carmel Sepuloni and Jenny Salesa are in safe seats.
However, if Labour gets 30 per cent at the election that leaves only 8 places for List MPs - and 6 of those would have to go to women if it is to meet the 45 per cent.

That would not be enough to get all of the current List MPs back. It could put the likes of Clayton Cosgrove, Andrew Little and Kelvin Davis at risk of missing out if more women are ranked above them to ensure the 45 per cent target was safely passed.

The Labour Party's Man-Ban is about to come back and bite MP's on the bum. When senior MP's such as Andrew Little and Clayton Cosgrove are in danger of missing out (and David Parker's name was also mentioned this week, when Labour polled 23%), things are pretty grim.

Quota systems simply don't work. As honourable as Labour MP's trying to honour the party's commitment to gender equity may feel, very competent male MP's are going to have to make way for less qualified females, simply to make up the numbers.

We don't say that to demean Labour's female candidates. But a party which has been to the forefront of bringing women forward in politics ought not to have to resort to a quota system. It is the quota imposed by the Man-Ban policy that is demeaning to women. The sole qualification for an MP should be ability, not genitalia.

And as the polls continue their descent, and male MP's such Messrs Parker, Cosgrove, Little and Davis scramble for winnable list places, this weekend's ranking meeting will be brutal. We guess that's only to be expected when someone is about to be dudded out of a job and a $150,000 salary simply because they had the misfortune to be born the wrong gender.

The Man-Ban always was a daft idea. When Labour's Party List is released some time tomorrow, and when the casualties have been either bandaged up or transported to hospital we're going to see just how daft the Man-Ban is now. And we'll get an idea of how much worse it will be in 2017 when Labour's rules will require a 50/50 split.

0 Harawira - "an inside job"

Whilst David Cunliffe is crying foul, Hone Harawira reckons the Donghua Liu revelations are an inside job from within Labour; Stuff reports:

HARAWIRA: IT'S AN INSIDE JOB
Mana leader Hone Harawira believed someone within the Labour Party, rather than the Government, was running a smear campaign against Cunliffe.
He admitted he was concerned about the impact of Labour's latest troubles on the chances of Left-wing parties attracting enough votes to form a coalition government at the next election.
"I'm in the game of trying to change the government. To do that requires Mana and the Internet Party to get stronger without adversely affecting the Greens and Labour and for the Greens and Labour to also get strong with their own constituencies. Any threat to that is a threat to us overall." 

It's not often that Harawira and Cameron Slater would be singing from the same song-sheet, but we read this earlier today on Whaleoil:

Sources inside Labour having been consistently saying that Grant Robertson knew all about Donghua Liu and his donations to Labour.
I know he was specifically warned over attacks based over Donghua Liu.
When he was attacking National over this he was setting his leader up for a fall. 
This was known for a couple of months, as Robertson was able to deny any involvement in fundraising as he wasn’t an MP until after the 2008 election.
What will be more troubling for David Cunliffe supporters is the same sources are saying that Robertson couldn’t believe his luck when Cunliffe made statements saying he hadn’t advocated on behalf of Donghua Liu. 

Then here comes the clincher:

Apparently Robertson knew all about the letter and didn’t warn Cunliffe. This kind of low political bastardry has to be admired.
Grant Robertson has shown he has the mongrel to be leader of the Labour Party, and the finesse as well.
His set up of his leader was absolutely brilliant, and he has effectively sandbagged the Labour campaign so he can have a shot at being leader. 

Let's not forget that Grant Robertson served his political apprenticeship in the office of Helen Elizabeth Clark, with her formidable chief of staff Heather Simpson. So close was Robertson to H1 and H2 that the urban legend reports his nickname at the time as being H3. To have received the Whaleoil Seal of Approval for Political Bastardry suggests that Robertson was a very good student of the Dark Arts.

So if this is indeed a set-up and an "inside job" as Harawira describes it, Grant Robertson would unsurprisingly be high on the list of suspects. But then again, so would the co-chairs of ABC, Trevor Mallard and Clayton Cosgrove, neither of whom is beyond getting down and dirty.

The Labour Party doesn't look especially happy or united at the moment. Labour registering at 28% on the Roy Morgan poll that has just come out this afternoon won't do much for the mood either as the caucus disperses for the weekend. How will they be when they reconvene after a weekend of BBQ's?

0 Tweet of the Day - 31 May 2014

It would appear that Labour MP Chris Hipkins ISN'T a fan of the Large German Gentleman and his purchasing power:

Now we do have to note that Chris Hipkins, along with the likes of Trevor Mallard, Annette King and Clayton Cosgrove is aligned to the ABC faction within the Labour Party. So we can't say with any authority that David Cunliffe shares this view of Dotcom, which is a great pity.

David Cunliffe could earn himself a lot of respect if he were to come out and say that he will have nothing to do with anyone buying political parties. We suspect that Mr Cunliffe is much more an end-justifies-the-means politician.

Mr Cunliffe's attitude to MegaMana over the next few weeks is going to be fascinating to watch. Does he, like Hone Harawira, have a price?

0 Quotes of the Day - 24 April 2014

There has been so much written about Shane Jones' shock departure from politics that we could blog about it all day. But we're on holiday, so have selected two small snippets.

The first one is from Andrew Dickens at Newstalk ZB who, let's just say, is not normally right-leaning in his opinions. Dickens opines thus:

I’m getting tired of asking ‘what is Labour thinking?’. But that’s what we’ve been saying all year long.
It’s time for them to be firing shots. The election is 20 weeks away, the budget just days away, and Labour is firing shots alright - right into their own feet.
Rajen Prasad's stand on Nigella Lawson in the weekend was truly laughable. We can’t keep out a visitor without criminal conviction unless they represent truly objectionable viewpoints such as rappers praising gang rape or holocaust deniers. We can’t deny Nigella a visa unless we decide that she really does use too much butter. So it was a Don Quixote moment, except Nigella will never look like a windmill. The real story is that Rajen was not under control. Matt McCarten seems to have lost his legs, just like Benji Marshall - the game line is safe.
Then there was Andrew Little's outrage yesterday that Wanaka worked over Easter weekend. Labour says they’re all about jobs, but they’re not when they say that when 25,000 people visit town no-one is allowed to profit from it due to an antiquated law. Wanaka jobs are dependent on snow and the Warbirds. They wanted to make money, they wanted jobs so I don’t get what Andrew is on about. When the workers want to work and when the work is there, they work and you let them. That’s called supporting workers Mr Little. I didn’t hear anyone from Wanaka moaning about working when they flouted the law and made hay.
So another week of more gaffes, more overthinking. It’s a weekly wonder. And before all you Labour supporters start thinking I’m some sort of Tory cheerleader, there's Shane Jones.
Has there ever been a clearer example of a rat leaving the sinking ship than Shane? Last year he charged for the Labour leadership. This year he's leaving to be a salary boy, jacked up by Murray McCully no less. He’s given up. He can’t see a Cabinet job on the government benches so he’s off to make hay. Can’t say I blame him!
So Labour has lost its mojo. It doesn’t even know how to spell mojo. There’s something deeply wrong. After two terms out of office, they should not be this far out of the race this close to an election. It’s sad. 

That's pretty powerful stuff from Dickens, but he's dead right in our ever-humble opinion. Good government needs to be balanced by good opposition, and the quality of the Labour opposition at present is sadly lacking.

And the second quote comes from right inside Labour's tent with the words of Clayton Cosgrove, on of the head honchos of the ABC faction. Drawing a rugby analogy, Cosgrove provides this gem:

List MP Calyton Cosgrove, a close friend of Jones, said he was "gutted'' his mate was leaving and admitted it would hurt the party five months out from the September 20 election.
The pair have been close for several years. Both came from business backgrounds before joining politics and had worked closely together on many issues, latterly Labour's attack on supermarkets.
"I am gutted he's going. He will leave a massive hole in our movement because he had such an appeal,'' Cosgrove said.
But he said he respected the call Jones had made.
Cosgrove would not comment on whether he was aware of Jones' move beforehand but conceded the resignation would not help Labour.
"It definitely takes away one of our big hitters. Shane was like a ballistic cannon when he fired. When you lose anybody that's a talented bloke ... it would be like losing Richie McCaw from the Crusaders. It makes your job a bit tougher.''

Labour has so few "big hitters" that the loss of Jones is going to be a huge hurdle for the party.  It's going to show now how inept so many of Labour's MP's gahave been this year as they focus on the things that DON'T matter to the vast majority of New Zealanders.

Of course MMP makes the impossible seem possible, and Labour still has a chance of cobbling together some kind of coalition of the desperate and dateless, but in reality, would you trust them with New Zealand's finances when they can't even organise themselves? We certainly wouldn't.