0 More poll misery for Labour and Mr Cunliffe

After the difficulties David Cunliffe had last week, a number of pundits suggested that pressure might come on him if the next round of TV polls hurt Labour.

It has. The 3News/Reid Research poll has just come out, and it shows both Labour's and Mr Cunliffe's popularity slipping. Labour is down 2 points to 27.3%, and National (down 0.6% to 49.7%) has a commanding lead. The Greens have gained where Labour lost, and NZ First is still some distance from the 5% thresh-hold. The Internet Mana alliance will need to win an electorate if it is to figure, polling a mere 1.8%.

And in the Preferred Prime Minister stakes, the news is no better for Mr Cunliffe. John Key is up 3.1 points to 46.7%, whereas David Cunliffe remains stranded in single figures, down 0.2 points to 9.6% support.

National's polling is remarkably, given that they are a party nearing the end of their second term in government, whereas Labour's support is basically where it was at the 2011 General Election. And that, of course, was Labour's worst election result in some 70 years.  But in 2011, Labour was still almost in a position to form a government; it wouldn't have taken much of a swing to enable that to happen.

In the meantime, National heads into its election-year conference in Wellington tomorrow in bouyant mood, and why wouldn't they? We're sure that the party faithful will get plenty of warnings not to be complacent, and it is imperative that the party faithful take those warnings on board. 

Labour's upcoming conference, on the other hand, will be a little more subdued, after a series of dreadful poll results. Patrick Gower said on 3News tonight that "This poll is all about Labour wounded, and scared".  Given the current dysfunctional state of the Labour Party, a new record low on 20th September is a distinct possibility.


UPDATE: Here are the poll graphics from the 3News website:

 

0 First Gower, now Garner

We blogged last night about Patrick Gower's rant about the MegaMana rort.

If you think that was bad, wait until you see what Duncan Garner thinks; Gower's piece was but an entree. In his op-ed this afternoon he has absolutely ripped in to Dotcom, Harawira et al. Under the headline Party for sale - Internet-Mana is a sham and a rort Garner opines:

This Internet-Mana party alliance is a sham and a rort, but MMP allows for it - which is the worst bit. 
I’ve seen nothing like it in the history of NZ politics. It is far less transparent than the dodgy electorate seat deals National has done over the years. New Zealanders have every right to be outraged.

This is about an already convicted criminal - a rich internet tycoon wanted on piracy charges, no less – on the run from the United States and sheltering in New Zealand. He’s a had a run in with the NZ Government and the US authorities, so he’s doing all he can to buy his way out of trouble.
It now includes pulling out his cheque-book and paying for a political party and buying people off – so he can keep his sorry backside out of the clink.
It’s as simple as that: he’s paying big money so he doesn’t turn into some sort of dribbling mess behind bars – some reports suggest he’s pumped $4m into setting up this party. So how much is he paying his people?
I asked new leader Laila Harré yesterday, she said she wasn’t sure yet. But money between the two will change hands at some stands, she’s clear on that.
She will be paid for this role. Is this the New Zealand way? I would argue no way. It’s grubby isn’t it? You only get paid once you get elected don’t you?
I have had a bit to do with Harré over the years. She has been a tireless and effective campaigner for those on the left. However, her former allies think she has sold out; Jim Anderton is far from impressed.
Harré is ambitious. Before all this she had integrity and credibility, but many of us are questioning that now. What does she really have in common with Kim Dotcom? Bugger all. He’s found she has a price after all.

Duncan Garner absolutely nails all the key issues in this sordid rort. Kim Dotcom clearly thinks he can buy people off. New Zealand needs to send him a clear message that that's not how we do things here.

Every man, they say, has his price. We know now that Hone Harawira will dispense with democracy for half a million big ones. We don't know what Laila Harre's price is, but we're guessing it's a darned sight more than the base salary for a back-bench MP.

Garner closes, and rolls out the dreaded "C" word:

Most of all this deal lacks transparency; she will, and should be, hounded by the press about how much she is personally being paid by Kim Dotcom to be the leader. Plus, what sort of deal has been done on Kim Dotcom’s possible extradition?
If there is a change of Government, and a future Minister overturns any extradition, isn’t that corruption? Wouldn’t he have bought his way out of an American jail?
New Zealanders have every right to feel dirty over this deal. It brings our political process into disrepute. Dotcom has contempt for our system, our democracy and our country. To him, everything is for sale and everyone has their price.
I don’t see it lasting. This will, and should, end in tears.

Garner is right; this stinks, far worse than the snapper that got David Shearer's number. The stench of corruption hovers over this dirty, dirty deal. 

And it is especially ironic to consider Hone Harawira's contribution to the Third Reading debate on the Electoral Finance Bill in December 2007, when speaking as a Maori Party MP he said:

HONE HARAWIRA: I want to make the point that if I wish to speak in Māori at any time, I will do so.

We are the Māori Party, with not a bean to our name, but we still turned down $250,000 rather than compromise our independence, and for the same reasons we are opposed to this bill. We are the Māori Party, and we were angry with both the divisive “Iwi/Kiwi” campaign run by National and the nasty “a vote for the Māori Party is a vote for National” campaign run by Labour, because we did not have the wherewithal to counteract either. Yet still we are opposed to this bill. We are the Māori Party, with not a bean to our name, but we stand free in this House, answerable to no one but our own people, uncompromised by shady deals with either of the major parties, and we are proud to say that we are opposed to this electoral finance legislation.

We know Harawira's price now; a price Kim Dotcom willingly paid, with his tainted money. We hope he can live with himself.

0 Paddy Gower gets angry

3 News political editor Patrick Gower is angry, and he's telling the word about it. It's not John Key who has made him angry. Nor is it David Cunliffe, or the Greens, or even John Archibald Banks.

No; it's none of the above. So we'll let Gower himself tell you who he's angry with, and why:

The Hone-Dotcom-Laila political triangle is one of the dirtiest deals in New Zealand political history.

It is as dirty as National-Act in Epsom.

It is as dirty as the Key-Dunne deal in Ohariu.

Frankly, Lalia Harré made me feel sick today when she said "it's time for New Zealanders to take back MMP".

That's because Laila Harré is wrecking MMP.

Hone Harawira is wrecking MMP.

And Kim Dotcom is wrecking MMP.

They are using Harawira's seat and MMP's "coat-tail" rule to get a back-door entry into Parliament.

It is a rort.

It is a grubby deal, made all the worse by the fact Harawira holds the Te Tai Tokerau seat - a Maori seat.

The Maori seats are special. They have a unique constitutional role which is to give the Tangata Whenua a place of their own in the New Zealand Parliament.

The Maori seats have been hard fought for.

Never, ever was it envisaged they would be used as a back-door entry for a German millionaire to get his proxy into Parliament.

This will give those opposed to Maori seats ammunition to get rid of them.

Patrick Gower is dead right. Whether you support the Maori seats or not, they are special. They recognition that Maori are tangata whenua, although with the number of Maori now being elected either in General seats or via party lists, their days may well be numbered. As Gower notes, Harawira is making bullets for opponents of the Maori seats to fire at him.

Gower isn't done yet though; he continues, by following the money trail:

Sadly, the Internet Mana deal has diminished the mana of the Maori seats.

And even sadder too, this deal involves money.

Harawira wants Dotcom's money.

Annette Sykes wants Dotcom's money.

John Minto wants Dotcom's money.

They are all willing to pervert the MMP system for the sake of money and it is a venal deal.

Don't try and tell me Laila Harré cares deeply about the internet. She cares about getting into Parliament.

I have a lot of respect for Harawira, Sykes and Minto. They have spent their lives fighting for what they believe in - for points of principle.

But that respect has been tarnished.

They are obsessed by power, obsessed by money and will trample over the rights of New Zealand voters to get it.

This Internet Mana deal is so wrong.

We urge readers to check out Paddy Gower's whole piece. We haven't even mentioned the bit about Dotcom's motive for this whole messy sham; that would be a story on its own.

But we've saved the best quote until last:

So the list of MMP wreckers just gets longer - Key and his right-wing crew are joined by the Left.

Labour and the Greens are wreckers too. Both prepared to work with the Internet Mana Party lot because "it's within the rules".

The Labour-Greens criticism of Epsom etc was a lie - they only did it because they didn't have a deal of their own. Now they do and deals are okay.

David Cunliffe, Russel Norman and Metiria Turei are now as low as Key and Steven Joyce.

Labour and the Greens are now hypocrites.

No wonder people don't go and vote.

No wonder people get turned off politics.

Across the House, New Zealand's politicians of all colours should hang their heads in shame for sanctioning these grubby deals.

We don't necessarily blame the politicians. MMP has permitted this farce. We didn't vote for MMP in the referendum in the early 1990's, nor did we vote for its retention in 2011. MMP is a far-from-perfect system of democracy, and you can't really blame parties for exploiting the loopholes, given that we are stuck with MMP for the foreseeable future.

But let's not hear any whingeing from the Left about dirty deals from here on out. The Mana Party has sold its principles for a fistful of dollars, and Labour and the Greens have stood by and let it happened. Of course all those parties strongly supported MMP, so it can be argued they're getting hoist by their own petard.

The next round of polls will be interesting. We suspect this is going to end very badly for the political Left.

0 A movie for David, Matt and Clint

Rumour has it that things have been tense today, both in the War Room and at Fraser House, the Labour Party HQ. It probably hasn't helped that Patrick Gower has re-named the War Room as the "Panic Station"!

So here's a moment of comic relief to help David Cunliffe, Grant Robertson, Matt McCarten, Hey Clint and all the rest of Labour's Dad's Army into perspective:

Duncan Garner has suggested that David Cunliffe should offer his resignation, but given Labour's cumbersome method of selecting a leader, it's probably too late from that. We reckon they just have to follow Lance Corporal Jack Jones' advice - Don't Panic!

0 Darien Fenton retires; is Clare Curran next?

Labour list MP Darien Fenton will leave Parliament at the General Election. Whether she has retired or whether she is being retired is a moot point. But Ms Fenton joins fellow unranked (Labour's caucus is ranked down to #25 of 34) MP Rajen Prasad in heading for greener pastures.

Interestingly, we blogged a prediction of this in September last year, courtesy of Patrick Gower from 3News; check this out:

Paddy Gower also tipped the imminent demise of Clare Curran. Neither she nor Ms Fenton were Cunliffe loyalists, as evidenced by their low rankings within Labour's caucus. Will Clare Curran be next to be pensioned off?

And as a final irony, Darien Fenton came to Parliament after many years as the general secretary of the Service and Food Workers' Union. Isn't it ironic that Labour's 2012 rule change gave the unions the determining vote in Labour leadership contests, and Ms Fenton's political career has been ended by the bloke who the unions wanted to lead the Labour Party.

0 Be careful what you wish for Paddy

There was a minor party leaders' debate this morning on The Nation. And 3News political editor Patrick Gower knows what buttons to push with regard to two particular minor party leaders:

We love Paddy Gower's little show of defiance to Russel Norman and Winston Peters with his "So sue me" comment. We just wonder however if given the frequency with which one of the two minor party leaders referred to been in the courts over his long parliamentary career, Paddy Gower should be careful what he wishes for!

0 Tweet of the Day - 8 May 2014

Xero founder Rod Drury takes 3News to task over its political coverage over the last few days:

Paddy Gower may have tried to calm the waters with his reply, but it's hard to disagree with Mr Drury's final comment.

It's hard too to escape the conclusion that these donations stories, fed to 3News by the Greens and Labour are anything more than part of the Left's push for taxpayer funding of political parties. But hey; let's not miss the opportunity to smear the National Party in particular, even if this particular issue has ricocheted back on Labour and the Greens in a rather unwelcome (for them) manner.

0 Armstrong on Collins and truth

John Armstrong takes a close look at the Judith Collins/Oravida allegations. Under the heading Peters faces wait to complete Oravida jigsaw Armstrong opines:

Winston Peters has gotten to the very heart of the vital matter of whether Judith Collins is guilty of such a serious conflict of interest that she would have to be sacked from the Cabinet forthwith.
In tandem with Labour's Grant Robertson, the New Zealand First leader has pieced together a jigsaw of separate events and happenings involving Collins, the milk-exporting company Oravida, and the Chinese border agency which blocked dairy imports after the Fonterra botulism scare last year.
It goes beyond Collins creating the "perception" of a conflict of interest — something the Cabinet Manual stresses Cabinet ministers must avoid and which Collins acknowledges her actions created.
The two Opposition parties claim enough information has now seeped into the public domain to suggest Collins had a real conflict of interest — one from which she stood to benefit from financially.

Unfortunately for Peters and Robertson, a rather vital piece of the jigsaw is missing.

Well colour us surprised; Winston Peters had made an allegation that he cannot substantiate! Just like the impending sale of Huka Lodge to the Chinese; just like any number of Peters beat-up over the years, he cannot deliver the coup de grace. There's a good reason for that; in the Oravida case, there IS no coup-de-grace.

Armstrong continues, getting to the heart of the issue:

That piece, which would join all the dots, is proof that Collins lobbied a Chinese official to exempt Oravida from China's freeze on dairy imports.
Without that proof — and Collins strenuously denies that she engaged in any such behaviour — the evidence remains circumstantial and any conclusions are therefore only conjecture.
The latter commodity is not sufficient reason for John Key to relieve Collins of her ministerial warrants; he has to take his minister at her word. If that word is found to be in conflict with the truth, however, then he will have to dump her from his ministry.
Given she has issued repeated denials in the House, she would probably have to leave Parliament altogether if she is found to have been economical with the truth. That Collins is risking such a tough sanction suggests she has been truthful.

John Armstrong does a far better job than the likes of Patrick Gower, Duncan Garner and Corin Dann have done. Instead of being duped by Peters' promises to bring down a Minister and with her John Key, Armstrong understands that all that Robertson and Peters have is rhetoric and speculation. They have no evidence that Ms Collins discussed Oravida at that infamous dinner. On the other hand, Judith Collins has steadfastly maintained her position.

And Armstrong closes with a reference to Winston Peters' time-honoured modus operandi:

Peters says he has more to come on this matter. But he needs the protection of parliamentary privilege to use it to maximum effect. After today's sitting, Parliament goes into recess for two weeks. And if a week is a long time in politics, then two weeks is a very, very long time in politics, especially in an election year.

Winston Peters is always promising that there is more to come. He uses it to keep himself and his personality cult party in the headlines. But all too often the issue fades from the public consciousness, without Peters ever delivering the promised "evidence".

We reckon that's what'll happen here. Winston Peters talks a good game, but if he had the evidence he claims to have, he would have tabled it in Parliament yesterday. He didn't, because there isn't any evidence, beyond Winston Peters and Grant Robertson putting two and two together and coming up with 22.