0 Another blow for Labour

Labour's "War Room" will not be a happy place this morning. And breakfast this morning will be hard to digest as Labour's strategists take in a second disastrous poll result in less than 24 hours.

As if the Roy Morgan poll wasn't bad enough, the latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll is out. David Cunliffe described the last Ipsos poll as "rogue", but it isn't; check out the carnage here:

National appears to be tightening its grip on the election, with our latest poll cementing its massive lead.
Today's stuff.co.nz/Ipsos Political poll has National on 54.8 per cent support - a staggering 30-point lead over Labour, but down 1.7 points from our last poll.
John Key is also preferred prime minister among most voters, at 53.7 per cent support to David Cunliffe's 12.8. 

Here's what that looks like in graphical form:

And like the Roy Morgan Confidence Rating, those surveyed by Ipsos are optimistic for the future:

Today's poll, which follows Labour's recent election-year congress and a series of targeted announcements on education policy, shows more decided voters, with Labour clearly benefiting from the change.
But 15.3 per cent of voters still don't know who they will vote for.
That will bring little cheer to Labour, however, as it prepares for its election campaign launch, now just weeks away.
Booming confidence in the economy appears to be buoying National's support, with 64 per cent of those surveyed believing the country was on the right track, the highest in our survey since 2012. Satisfaction with the Government's performance has also held up, suggesting Labour is running out of time to articulate a convincing argument for change.

As we noted in our post last night on the Morgan poll, governments lose elections rather than oppositions winning them. With similar numbers of people expressing confidence in New Zealand's direction over two polls, there is clearly little mood for change. 

We used to joke about Labour's number at the next poll having a 2 in front of it. Now Labour seems to be embedded in the mid-to-low-20's, and even though there has been a very minor correction in this poll compared to the last Fairfax-Ipsos poll, this poll will be a huge dent to Labour's optimism.

The faces in the War Room will be grim. It's hard to remain positive under the pressure of these kinds of numbers, and at least one high-profile Labour staffer was engaging in abusive social media comment last night; a sure sign of pressure. Labour has not only run out of rabbits to pull from hats; it's run out of hats as well!

Conversely John Key will return from his Hawaiian holiday tanned, rested and refreshed, and ready to hit the campaign trail. The 50th Parliament has just two weeks to go, and the election is just over nine weeks away.

The clock is ticking, but for Labour and David Cunliffe, it must sound like a time bomb ticking down. They'll be hunkering down in the War Room today.


 

0 Labour backs a loser

There has been a lot of xenophobic fighting talk this year from Labour over immigration. David Cunliffe promised to slash immigration numbers, then progressively backed away from that, as he is wont to do.

But if Labour was hoping to out-Winston Winston Peters in its attacks on immigration, it is going to fail; Stuff reports:

Scaremongering by opposition parties on immigration seems to be misplaced, with the issue barely registering as a concern among voters, a new poll reveals.
Labour and NZ First are raising the impact of migration on housing and interest rates as September's general election approaches.
But in the latest Stuff.co.nz/Ipsos poll, just 4 per cent of respondents cite immigration as the most important issue the country faces.
The economy (20.6 per cent), education (21.6), health (19.2) and unemployment (14.3) are the top four issues important to voters. A little over 12 per cent were worried about housing affordability.
In the past year, around 71,000 immigrants arrived in New Zealand - the highest number in 11 years. The poll asked if migration levels should change; 44.5 per cent said they should not.
However, most respondents believe a policy that would restrict non-residents buying property would be "somewhat effective". Among Aucklanders, in the midst of a housing shortage, the top response was "very effective".
Last month Labour leader David Cunliffe blamed immigrants for rising house prices.
"It would take 80 per cent of our housing supply just to accommodate this year's migrants - and National is doing nothing," he said.
Among Asians (15 per cent) and those not in paid employment (7.4), immigration was of most concern.
Labour has signalled it will look at controlling inward migration and work permits as a way to dampen housing demand and general price inflation. 

Under Helen Clark's leadership, Labour regarded itself as the natural home for those who have chosen New Zealand as a destination to migrate to. A lot has changed in six years however, and Labour is now openly hostile towards immigration, in the worst traditions of Peters. 

But it would appear that there is only room for one anti-immigration party, and Peters already has the market cornered:

Immigration has long been a touch-stone for NZ First leader Winston Peters, who claims it drives up property prices and inflation and will make NZ Super unaffordable. Concern is highest - at 8 per cent - among those who intend to vote NZ First.
The poll also shows Kiwis have an accurate perception of the levels of migration. It asked respondents to estimate what percentage of the population was born overseas. The average response was 25.92 per cent - very close to Statistics NZ figures, which recorded 25.2 per cent for 2013. 
Immigration minister Michael Woodhouse said the results were not surprising. "It suggests to me that Messrs Cunliffe and co are missing the point. I would interpret it as saying there is a minority of people who think it should decrease but actually it's not that important to them."
Labour's immigration spokesman, Trevor Mallard, said the debate around economic tools should not be stifled because some people took a racist approach. "You can't ignore migration because a small proportion of New Zealanders are racist." The question was whether more could be done around "peaks and troughs" of migration. 
"Where you can see a net spike then it is worth looking at ways you can level that off . . . I think it is important the tools work both ways - that it is pro-migration in a negative cycle and knowing the peak of migration when the economy is overheated."
Peters said the result was wrong and he did not listen to polls. 

The last sentence there is illuminating. Of course Winston Peters listens to the polls; they tell him when it is time to intensify the anti-immigration rhetoric in an election year.

This year however, David Cunliffe has already cut Peters off at the pass. His attacks on immigration though have been far less successful than those of Peters, partly because Labour's immigration policy has been so confused.

But the damage has been done. Labour has tried to steal a political march by going feral on immigrants, when immigration is low down on the list of thinks that matter to voters, except the dwindling number of voters who support Mr Peters. And to give him a rare bit of credit, at least Peters has been consistent in his xenophobia for 20 years, whereas David Cunliffe is a latter-day convert.

But once again, Labour has backed a loser. This is becoming too much of a trend.

0 Watkins on Cunliffe

The Fairfax-Ipsos poll came out last week, and it's fair to say that it wasn't good news for David Cunliffe and the Labour Party he leads. 

One aspect of the poll we didn't touch on when we blogged about it on Wednesday was the Preferred Prime Minister rankings; here they are:

David Cunliffe's PPM rankings are poor; they're in David Shearer territory, or worse. And whilst Labour's polling was at just under 30%, Mr Cunliffe's PPM ranking isn't even half that, which means that more Labour voters DON'T rate David Cunliffe as their choice of PM than do. That's extraordinary. So Tracy Watkins has been drilling down through the numbers:

Will the real David Cunliffe please stand up?
That's the message from experts who claim the Labour leader is failing to connect with the voting public because he's not being true to himself.
It's a sentiment reflected strongly in the latest Stuff.co.nz/Ipsos political poll in which people were asked to play a word association game with Cunliffe and Prime Minister John Key.
Asked to sum up the leaders in one word, people opted for "good" when describing Key, but words included confidence, arrogance, charismatic, leader and a suite of words lumped together as "profanity".
For Cunliffe, words like untrustworthy, arrogant and shifty were more likely to be used along with trying, promising and inexperienced.
However, the poll showed visibility is be an issue for Cunliffe, with 20 per cent saying they thought "nothing" when Cunliffe's name came up; compared with 3 per cent for Key.
While Key got 43 per cent positive comments, 30 per cent negative and 27 per cent neutral or nothing, Cunliffe got about 6 per cent positive, 25 per cent negative and a whopping 69 per cent neutral or nothing. The results reinforce the impression that Cunliffe is still struggling to connect with voters. 

We find it interesting that people see David Cunliffe as "inexperienced". He has, of course, been in Parliament longer than John Key, and served as a senior Minister in the Clark administration. He had enough experience to undermine Mr Shearer's leadership.

So Tracy Watkins turns to John Key's former media trainer for some perspective, and to a media professional who has actually worked with Mr Cunliffe:

 

Former TVNZ political commentator turned media trainer Bill Ralston said Cunliffe came across like he "doesn't know himself".
"He always appears to be acting. You know, ‘I'm going to be angry now, I'm going to be funny now, I'm going to be serious'. I don't know what or who the real David Cunliffe is but we haven't seen him yet. It's that inauthenticity that's the issue. He just is not pitching himself as a normal person."
Ralston, who helped train Key, said the Prime Minister and New Zealand First's Winston Peters were leaders who had "clearly identified characteristics and personalities - you can almost guess what they are going to say or do next whereas Cunliffe, there's something that just doesn't ring true".
Cunliffe, who at times proved he had the ability to connect, was a thoughtful man who was likely to be over-analysing problems, he said. "He shouldn't try to be anything else other than himself."
Media trainer Brian Edwards, who has worked with Cunliffe, said the Labour leader was coming across poorly "which is curious because in the past he's come across very well indeed. He doesn't look relaxed, he doesn't look spontaneous, he looks like he is reciting extended sound bites that he has been given by advisers."
This was likely down to poor ratings and a failure to gain traction with the public which affected an MP's confidence and tended to make people over-correct. It seemed this had forced Cunliffe to over-prepare and use scripted responses at a time when it was better to wing it. "You can have this problem of too many voices. You're given all this advice and you end up with scrambled brains."

Both Ralston and Edwards are right. With John Key, what you see is what you get, and you know what that's going to be. Key is as comfortable as a Prime Minister as he is as a husband or a father, and draws people in. Even those who oppose him acknowledge his ability to comment with New Zealanders from the board room to the workplace.

David Cunliffe on the other hand is an enigma. The David Cunliffe who delivered the Budget speech on Thursday was a far cry from the David Cunliffe at home with John Campbell on Monday night. Cunliffe confuses people with his different messages to different audiences.

Is authenticity a skilled that can be acquired? We don't know, but even if it is, we doubt that David Cunliffe can acquire it before the election campaign begins in earnest. We close as Tracy Watkins began; will the real David Cunliffe please stand up?

0 Trouble at t'mill in Tamaki Makaurau

As if the Labour Party didn't already have enough internal problems, there's a massive shit-fight brewing in Tamaki Makaurau. Radio New Zealand reports:

A former Labour MP for Tamaki Makaurau has accused the Labour Party president of abusing her power over the Shane Taurima case. It follows a request from the Tamaki Makaurau electorate committee for a review of the Labour national council decision not to let Mr Taurima stand.
John Tamihere told Morning Report that independent sources have confirmed party president Moira Coatsworth met with another broadcaster, Julian Wilcox.
"It's OK for a president to shoulder tap a high profile candidate or nominee like a Wilcox, but where it goes a bit awry is when you use your authority and power to then skew the scrum completely by taking out a major adversary on the pretext of an error of judgement in his employment" he said.
Mr Tamihere went on to say he believed Mr Taurima had good grounds for a judicial review of the Labour Council decision.

We can just imagine how that's going to go down; a Labour Party electorate committee dragging the party and its president to court just months before the General Election. That's really going to reinforce the notion that Labour is ready to govern; not! The party is at war with itself at the moment.

The RNZ story continues, outlining some pretty deep discontent within the Tamaki Makaurau LEC:

In a statement, the electorate committee said it was disappointed with the decision, and wanted Labour's council to review it. It said it continued to support Mr Taurima as a candidate and would be seeking further advice.
The decision was made after Mr Taurima was found to have used Television New Zealand resources for Labour Party campaigning.
A senior member on the electorate committee Shane Te Pou said there was a lot of hurt stemming from the decision to veto Mr Taurima's candidacy.
He told Morning Report there there was lot of ill feeling on the electorate committee and a lot of patch-up work needed to be done. Mr Te Pou said it was time to move on and it was highly likely nominations for the seat would reopen.

We don't know whether Shane Taurima would have a case for judicial review, given the decision of the Labour Party council. We do know however that Will Flavell, the only nomination to date will have every reason to feel hard done by if nominations are reopened again, and he faces competition for the role of Labour's Tamaki Makaurau candidate.

The Labour Party is a far from happy place at the moment, and this morning's Fairfax-Ipsos poll will have done nothing to lift spirits. There's all sorts of trouble at t'mill.

0 A tale of two polls

The Left was cock-a-hoop at the end of last week when the notoriously variant Roy Morgan poll showed Labour/Green ahead of the National Party. But this morning, the bubbly can go back on ice.

Stuff has released the latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll, and it makes grim reading; that's if your name is Cunliffe, Norman or Turei. And if your name is Peters, or any other NZ First MP, you'll be dusting off your CV ready for a return to the job market in October. Tracy Watkins has the grim details (for those mentioned above, and their supporters):

National has shrugged off weeks of scandal and is riding high in today's Stuff.co.nz/Ipsos Political Poll.
With Finance Minister Bill English poised to unveil tomorrow what he hopes will be an election-winning Budget, the poll suggests there is no need to pull any rabbits out of the hat.
It puts National on 47.6 per cent support, down 1.8 percentage points on our last poll, but still enough to govern alone if the results were mirrored on election night.
Labour has slipped to 29.50 per cent, taking it below the morale-busting 30 per cent threshold for the first time. 

The Fairfax-Ipsos poll has tended to flatter Labour. Whereas other polls have had David Cunliffe's team fluctuated above and below the 30% line since the 2011 General Election, Labour has held its ground in this particular poll. Until this morning, that is.

And Tracy Watkins predicts a new round of naval-gazing in the War Room:

Today's result is likely to cause soul searching within Labour, however, over leader David Cunliffe's failure to get traction against Key despite the succession of ministerial scandals.
The poll shows Cunliffe sliding in the preferred prime minister stakes to 13.4 per cent, down 3.9 points from our last poll in February and well behind Key, who is on 48.6 per cent. Labour also suffered a blow during the polling period with the news that former leadership hopeful Shane Jones is quitting Parliament. But Labour's biggest enemy may be the improving economy, with the poll showing 63.6 per cent of voters believe the country is on the right track. 

Indeed. Bill English is set to announce the economy is back in surplus for 2014-15 when he delivers tomorrow's Budget, more people in New Zealand are in work than at any time in the country's history, manufacturing and exporting is humming, and tourists continue to visit New Zealand in record numbers. Bill English and John Key have a strong platform from which to campaign for re-election.

Here's how the parties stack up:

Ms Watkins notes that the Greens seem to have picked up some "soft" Labour support, whilst NZ First is going nowhere. Winston Peters is going to need more than a luke-warm spud gun to gain any traction, as Labour threatens to trump him with anti-Chinese rhetoric.

John Key and Bill English will be feeling positive ahead of tomorrow's Budget, and they have every right to be. Bill English has steered the economy through the worst recession since the Great Depression, and the waters ahead are calm, especially compared to the heavy seas facing Australia. Why would any sensible voter put that at risk?