Posted by Blogger Name. Category:
Bill English
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David Cunliffe
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Fairfax-Ipsos poll
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John Key
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Labour Party
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Metiria Turei
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National Party
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NZ First
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Russel Norman
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The Budget 2014
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The Greens
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Tracy Watkins
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Winston Peters
The Left was cock-a-hoop at the end of last week when the notoriously variant Roy Morgan poll showed Labour/Green ahead of the National Party. But this morning, the bubbly can go back on ice.
Stuff has released the latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll, and it makes grim reading; that's if your name is Cunliffe, Norman or Turei. And if your name is Peters, or any other NZ First MP, you'll be dusting off your CV ready for a return to the job market in October. Tracy Watkins has the grim details (for those mentioned above, and their supporters):
National has shrugged off weeks of scandal and is riding high in today's Stuff.co.nz/Ipsos Political Poll.
With Finance Minister Bill English poised to unveil tomorrow what he hopes will be an election-winning Budget, the poll suggests there is no need to pull any rabbits out of the hat.
It puts National on 47.6 per cent support, down 1.8 percentage points on our last poll, but still enough to govern alone if the results were mirrored on election night.
Labour has slipped to 29.50 per cent, taking it below the morale-busting 30 per cent threshold for the first time.
The Fairfax-Ipsos poll has tended to flatter Labour. Whereas other polls have had David Cunliffe's team fluctuated above and below the 30% line since the 2011 General Election, Labour has held its ground in this particular poll. Until this morning, that is.
And Tracy Watkins predicts a new round of naval-gazing in the War Room:
Today's result is likely to cause soul searching within Labour, however, over leader David Cunliffe's failure to get traction against Key despite the succession of ministerial scandals.
The poll shows Cunliffe sliding in the preferred prime minister stakes to 13.4 per cent, down 3.9 points from our last poll in February and well behind Key, who is on 48.6 per cent. Labour also suffered a blow during the polling period with the news that former leadership hopeful Shane Jones is quitting Parliament. But Labour's biggest enemy may be the improving economy, with the poll showing 63.6 per cent of voters believe the country is on the right track.
Indeed. Bill English is set to announce the economy is back in surplus for 2014-15 when he delivers tomorrow's Budget, more people in New Zealand are in work than at any time in the country's history, manufacturing and exporting is humming, and tourists continue to visit New Zealand in record numbers. Bill English and John Key have a strong platform from which to campaign for re-election.
Here's how the parties stack up:
Ms Watkins notes that the Greens seem to have picked up some "soft" Labour support, whilst NZ First is going nowhere. Winston Peters is going to need more than a luke-warm spud gun to gain any traction, as Labour threatens to trump him with anti-Chinese rhetoric.
John Key and Bill English will be feeling positive ahead of tomorrow's Budget, and they have every right to be. Bill English has steered the economy through the worst recession since the Great Depression, and the waters ahead are calm, especially compared to the heavy seas facing Australia. Why would any sensible voter put that at risk?
