0 A flip-flop on the u-turn

You couldn't make stuff like this up; check out Gerry Brownlee's presser, via Scoop:

Hon Gerry Brownlee
Minister of Transport
17 July 2014 Media Statement

Another Labour U-turn on Puhoi to Wellsford – that’s a 360!

Transport Minister Gerry Brownlee says Labour’s Northland list MP and candidate for Te Tai Tokerau, Kelvin Davis, must be alarmed at what a pernicious viper’s nest his party has become.
“Three days ago it seemed Labour had seen sense on the $1.38 billion Puhoi to Wellsford State Highway 1 upgrade, one of the Government’s seven Roads of National Significance,” Mr Brownlee says.
“Their transport spokesman Phil Twyford clearly told The New Zealand Herald Labour would no longer axe the road, merely postpone its construction.
“This was a huge change of heart from Labour, but a sensible one, as the road is supported wholeheartedly by every regional authority from Auckland to Cape Reinga, and the vast majority of the people who live in the far north.
“It was also a big boost for Mr Davis, who had bravely spoken out in favour of investing in greater resilience for Northland’s infrastructure following this week’s damaging storms.
“But 72 hours later Labour’s Auckland-centric powerbrokers have told their plucky upstart from the sticks to get back in his box.
“In an interview with Duncan Garner on Radio Live this afternoon Phil Twyford made it clear that when he says postponed, he means never – under Labour the roading lifeline to the north is a goner.
“The message for the people of Northland is clear: with $1.66 billion worth of roading projects already committed to the far north, the only major political party offering the sort of first-world infrastructure that will see you deliver on your abundant potential is the National Party,” Mr Brownlee says.

Apart from the good folk of points north of Puhoi, the big loser here is Kelvin Davis. Labour has just pulled the rug out from underneath Davis, almost guaranteeing that Hone Harawira will retain Te Tai Tokerau, and almost guaranteeing that MegaMana will be in the 51st Parliament. But the way that Labour is polling at the moment, Mr Davis may struggle to get in off Labour's list.

This flip-flop followed by a u-turn is a slap in the face for the people of Northland. The latte-drinking academics in Labour don't care about them, regardless of their platitudes about regional development. Instead, they will continue to make snide comments about the "holiday highway", forgetting that this is a vital link for Northland to Auckland and points south. 

Is it any wonder that Labour holds no electorates whatsoever north of the Auckland Harbour Bridge? When push comes to shove, Labour doesn't care about the roading needs of the people of Northland.

This is Labour's reaction to two dreadful poll results; a complete 360* two-step turnaround in the space of just four days. Can you imagine what a disaster it would be if they somehow won the Treasury Benches in two months time?

0 Garner on the deserting Labour MP's

Duncan Garner does a daily editorial piece on his afternoon show on RadioLive. The text is then posted on the RadioLive website.

Yesterday's piece was very interesting indeed. Under the headline Three Labour MP's say "Stuff the party - I want to win my seat" Garner opines:

Three Labour MPs have broken ranks in recent weeks – quite loudly and very publicly.
They are interested in one thing: self-preservation. They want to win their seats and they’ve given up relying on their party. They are clearly concerned Labour will poll poorly on election night, so they’ve decided to run their own campaigns – away from head office and away from the leader.
These MPs have either chosen not to be on the list or they have a low-list spot. They are vulnerable. It’s all or nothing for them.
They must win their seats to return to Parliament; this sort of pressure usually focuses an MP’s mind. They want to be back in Parliament and they want the $150k salary.
I’m talking about West Coast-Tasman MP, Damien O’Connor, Hutt South MP, Trevor Mallard and list MP and Te Tai Tokerau candidate, Kelvin Davis.
Take Davis: yesterday he engaged Labour in its biggest u-turn in years. He told me he supported the Puhoi-Wellsford road project that his party has openly mocked and criticised.
Labour MPs call it the holiday highway; David Cunliffe has campaigned against it. Labour, until yesterday, was going to can the project upon taking office. Who knows where they stand now!
Davis told me people in the north tell him they want the controversial project and so does he.

There's a very good reason why Labour doesn't hold a single electorate seat north of the Auckland Harbour Bridge; its patronising attitude to the people of Northland. And every time a Labour or Green MP utters the phrase "holiday highway", the parties leech still more votes.

The road between Puhoi and Wellsford is well below State Highway One standard, and its upgrade is long overdue. The events of the last week have shown how vital a roading lifeline in for the people of Northland.

Kelvin Davis knows that. Even though there is no guarantee that Labour will let him campaign to win in Te Tai Tokerau, Davis is going hard out to topple Hone Harawira, and all power to him.

But it's not just Davis rebelling against the party; Garner continues:

Further south in Wellington, Trevor Mallard is openly campaigning for the return of the moa – against the wishes of his party and the leadership. It’s a desperate cry for attention: Mallard needs visibility and the moa got him the headlines.
And further south again, Damien O’Connor voted with the Government 10 days ago to allow storm-damaged native trees to be harvested in protected forests.

You can probably add Te Tai Tonga MP Rino Tirakatene to the mix as well, although his tenure is less tenuous than either Trevor Mallard's or Damien O'Connor's. Mallard has gone electorate-only, and if he doesn't hold on to Hutt South on 20 September he will be looking for a job. And at #22 on Labour's list, there's no guarantee that Damien O'Connor will survive, hence his renewed efforts for his West Coast-Tasman constituents.

Garner closes, with a suggestion that those Labour MP's mentioned above are an endangered species within the "modern" Labour Party:

These three blokes are the outliers in the Labour Caucus. And they are blokes too; they need to make some noise to be heard. They clearly have issues with the tame approach within their caucus.
They want to stand out and stand for something that their electorates want (not sure that Hutt South really wants the moa back, though!).
O’Connor and Davis certainly look in touch with middle New Zealand, their electorates and their issues. They have given the one-fingered salute to their struggling party and put self-preservation first.
Who can blame them?

Indeed; who CAN blame Messrs Mallard, Davis and O'Connor for fighting for survival against a Labour Party which long ago abandoned any semblance of its origins.

We've already heard stories of Clayton Cosgrove having used billboards at the last election which excluded any mention of Phil Goff, and apparently he's doing the same again this time around. It will be interesting to see if other MP's follow a similar strategy, given that David Cunliffe was not the preferred choice as leader of around two thirds of Labour's caucus.

Garner's column does nothing to fend off rumours that the Labour Party is bitterly divided, and at war with itself. It will be interesting to see how the Mallard/Davis/O'Connor strategy plays out on 20 September.  

0 Hope the cleaners are well paid

Whoever cleans up after Labour's list ranking meeting this weekend had better be very well paid. There's likely to be blood on the floor in what is shaping up as an acrimonious session; the Herald reports:

The Labour Party will set its party list on Sunday and most of the prime real estate on it is expected to go to women candidates as the party wrestles with its new requirement to have a caucus with at least 45 per cent women after the 2014 election.
All of the top 20 MPs in caucus have also been told to go on the list in a bid to stop any perception the male MPs are boycotting it because of that rule, which makes it harder for males to get good list slots.
The party's low polling makes the news worse for male candidates relying on the list. It is expecting to win at least 28 electorates, 5 more than at present. That will give it two more female electorate MPs than present - Carmel Sepuloni and Jenny Salesa are in safe seats.
However, if Labour gets 30 per cent at the election that leaves only 8 places for List MPs - and 6 of those would have to go to women if it is to meet the 45 per cent.

That would not be enough to get all of the current List MPs back. It could put the likes of Clayton Cosgrove, Andrew Little and Kelvin Davis at risk of missing out if more women are ranked above them to ensure the 45 per cent target was safely passed.

The Labour Party's Man-Ban is about to come back and bite MP's on the bum. When senior MP's such as Andrew Little and Clayton Cosgrove are in danger of missing out (and David Parker's name was also mentioned this week, when Labour polled 23%), things are pretty grim.

Quota systems simply don't work. As honourable as Labour MP's trying to honour the party's commitment to gender equity may feel, very competent male MP's are going to have to make way for less qualified females, simply to make up the numbers.

We don't say that to demean Labour's female candidates. But a party which has been to the forefront of bringing women forward in politics ought not to have to resort to a quota system. It is the quota imposed by the Man-Ban policy that is demeaning to women. The sole qualification for an MP should be ability, not genitalia.

And as the polls continue their descent, and male MP's such Messrs Parker, Cosgrove, Little and Davis scramble for winnable list places, this weekend's ranking meeting will be brutal. We guess that's only to be expected when someone is about to be dudded out of a job and a $150,000 salary simply because they had the misfortune to be born the wrong gender.

The Man-Ban always was a daft idea. When Labour's Party List is released some time tomorrow, and when the casualties have been either bandaged up or transported to hospital we're going to see just how daft the Man-Ban is now. And we'll get an idea of how much worse it will be in 2017 when Labour's rules will require a 50/50 split.

0 White-anting in Labour? Surely not...

Is David Cunliffe being white-anted again? You'd have to wonder after reading Andrea Vance's story on Stuff:

Senior Labour Party MPs have used social media to attack the alliance struck between Mana and the Internet Party.
Former leaders Phil Goff and David Shearer, and Rimutaka MP Chris Hipkins, are among those who have objected to the deal. It could see MPs from Kim Dotcom’s fledging political vehicle enter Parliament on the ‘‘coat-tails’’ of a victory for Hone Harawira in Te Tai Tokerau.
The strong opposition from within Labour could make post-election coalition talks tricky.
Goff says he feel strongly about Dotcom’s ‘‘pure political opportunism’’, citing his previous donations to ACT MP John Banks, now the subject of a court case. ‘‘He wants to be able to influence and control politicians.’’
Goff says he was previously ‘‘very critical’’ of National for exploiting MMP and failing to implement recommendations from the Electoral Commission to abolish the provision.
‘‘I’m scarcely likely to endorse another rort ...I’m being entirely consistent,’’ he said.
Goff says he made his feelings clear to the Labour caucus. ‘‘It will be the decision of the party leadership...but I see problems in creating a coalition where the philosophies and principle of people that you are trying to enter into a coalition with is unclear because they seem to be coming from diametrically opposed positions.’’
Those  views were also reflected in a passionate Facebook post at the weekend. Shearer also used the social media site to write that although he wished the Internet-Mana ‘‘marriage’’ well, he knew ‘‘it’s going to end badly.’’
And on Twitter last week, Hipkins posted: ‘‘The good old days, when political parties formed from movements. Now all it takes is a couple of million and some unprincipled sellouts.’’ 

Now getting all high-and-mighty and having an attack of principles is one thing, but it's not something you'd usually associate with the Labour Party. But Ms Vance makes a very interesting point:

All three MPs were linked to the Anyone But Cunliffe [ABC] faction - who were opposed to David Cunliffe assuming leadership of the party. However, a Labour source played down talk of more division, saying all three were close to Te Tai Tokerau candidate Kelvin Davis.
Davis himself posted on Twitter: ‘‘Bro, I think of the people of Te Tai Tokerau, not Sergeant Shultz.’’  He was referring to Dotcom’s German origins.
A spokesman for Labour said Cunliffe was ‘‘off the grid’’ and not available for comment. 

Kelvin Davis is rapidly emerging as a lightning rod for the ABC faction, which as well as the three chaps named above includes the likes of Annette King, Trevor Mallard and Clayton Cosgrove. 

There's a test coming for David Cunliffe's leadership of the Labour Party. Will he support Kelvin Davis wholeheartedly in an attempt to wrench Te Tai Tokerau from Hone Harawira's grip? Or will he take the path of least resistance, and give MegaMana an armchair ride into Parliament by campaigning softly in the far North? 

Mr Cunliffe is on a hiding to nothing here. He is already deeply unpopular with a large portion of his caucus. But he will also need every possible coalition option if he is to have any chance of forming a government after the General Election.

No one said it would be easy...

0 Labour's own manufactured crisis

At last Labour has a crisis to be concerned about; even if it is its own crisis; Vernon Small from the Dom-Post reports:

Disarray. There is no other word to describe the mess the Labour Party plunged into last night. Not only did it have to come to terms with the loss of one of its strongest performers in Shane Jones, the party seemed to freeze like a possum in the headlights.
More than 90 minutes after the story broke there was no official confirmation, and leader David Cunliffe and his deputy David Parker neither returned media calls nor issued any statements.
Press secretaries were either unable to help, unhelpful or offline, and party president Moira Coatsworth and secretary Tim Barnett initially went to ground.
Former leader David Shearer was gracious enough to confirm he knew of the resignation, but other MPs said it was a "bolt from the blue" and "gutting" before a gagging order went around the caucus.
His replacement off the list Kelvin Davis - a mate of Jones - said he knew nothing.
It took Coatsworth until well into the evening to finally confirm Jones was quitting, just as Cunliffe and Jones went into a meeting together.
If anything was designed to scream "crisis" it was this. Jones will be a serious loss to the party.

Forget that manufactured manufacturing crisis that Labour was a party to in 2012-13. This is a genuine crisis for Labour, and it's happening right now.

And it's not just Vernon Small saying this. Over at the Herald, John Armstrong opines thus:

Shane Jones' shock decision to quit as a Labour MP will lead voters to draw one conclusion and one conclusion only: that he thinks Labour cannot win the September general election.
His departure is close to an unmitigated disaster for Labour. For starters, unlike the bulk of his colleagues, Jones could reach into segments of the vote - especially blue-collar males - who have switched off Labour. He was in the process of switching those traditional relationships back on.
He was a major weapon in helping Labour to win back more of the Maori seats.
Perhaps of most significance, Labour has lost the one man who would have acted as the essential go-between in securing Winston Peters' signature on a post-election coalition or co-operation agreement between Labour and New Zealand First which enabled Labour to govern.

Shane Jones has clearly blindsided the Labour Party's top brass. Pretty much the closest thing Labour had to Chris Trotter's mythical creature Waitakere Man, Jones appealed to the kind of voters that have deserted Labour as it forgot its working-class-and-proud-of-it roots, and set out to appeal the the urban elite in the likes of Grey Lynn and Wellington Central.

Armstrong also spells out the logistical implications of Jones' decision to bail out:

He might not have intended it, but his leaving is also a massive blow to Labour's morale at one of the worst possible times - just five months before election day when the party is endeavouring to motivate its membership to go door-knocking to get out the Labour vote.
The best that can be said is that Cunliffe will now not be overshadowed by anyone from his own side during the formal election campaign. That was always going to be a danger when Jones was around.

If Labour wasn't already in enough trouble, the departure of Jones is going to twist the knife. It's going to make it especially difficult for Labour to win back the Maori vote, although there is one upside; Jones' replacement Kelvin Davis will be able to campaign against Hone Harawira with the resources of Parliament behind him one he becomes an MP again.

However Labour spins this, it is a genuine setback, and from what we've seen and read this morning, Labour's top brass was in crisis mode last night. Shane Jones' biggest contribution to the New Zealand political scene might just be his exit from politics.