Posted by Blogger Name. Category:
John Armstrong
,
Kelvin Davis
,
Labour Party
,
Manufactured crisis
,
Shane Jones
,
Vernon Small
,
Waitakere Man
At last Labour has a crisis to be concerned about; even if it is its own crisis; Vernon Small from the Dom-Post reports:
Disarray. There is no other word to describe the mess the Labour Party plunged into last night. Not only did it have to come to terms with the loss of one of its strongest performers in Shane Jones, the party seemed to freeze like a possum in the headlights.
More than 90 minutes after the story broke there was no official confirmation, and leader David Cunliffe and his deputy David Parker neither returned media calls nor issued any statements.
Press secretaries were either unable to help, unhelpful or offline, and party president Moira Coatsworth and secretary Tim Barnett initially went to ground.
Former leader David Shearer was gracious enough to confirm he knew of the resignation, but other MPs said it was a "bolt from the blue" and "gutting" before a gagging order went around the caucus.
His replacement off the list Kelvin Davis - a mate of Jones - said he knew nothing.
It took Coatsworth until well into the evening to finally confirm Jones was quitting, just as Cunliffe and Jones went into a meeting together.
If anything was designed to scream "crisis" it was this. Jones will be a serious loss to the party.
Forget that manufactured manufacturing crisis that Labour was a party to in 2012-13. This is a genuine crisis for Labour, and it's happening right now.
And it's not just Vernon Small saying this. Over at the Herald, John Armstrong opines thus:
Shane Jones' shock decision to quit as a Labour MP will lead voters to draw one conclusion and one conclusion only: that he thinks Labour cannot win the September general election.
His departure is close to an unmitigated disaster for Labour. For starters, unlike the bulk of his colleagues, Jones could reach into segments of the vote - especially blue-collar males - who have switched off Labour. He was in the process of switching those traditional relationships back on.
He was a major weapon in helping Labour to win back more of the Maori seats.
Perhaps of most significance, Labour has lost the one man who would have acted as the essential go-between in securing Winston Peters' signature on a post-election coalition or co-operation agreement between Labour and New Zealand First which enabled Labour to govern.
Shane Jones has clearly blindsided the Labour Party's top brass. Pretty much the closest thing Labour had to Chris Trotter's mythical creature Waitakere Man, Jones appealed to the kind of voters that have deserted Labour as it forgot its working-class-and-proud-of-it roots, and set out to appeal the the urban elite in the likes of Grey Lynn and Wellington Central.
Armstrong also spells out the logistical implications of Jones' decision to bail out:
He might not have intended it, but his leaving is also a massive blow to Labour's morale at one of the worst possible times - just five months before election day when the party is endeavouring to motivate its membership to go door-knocking to get out the Labour vote.
The best that can be said is that Cunliffe will now not be overshadowed by anyone from his own side during the formal election campaign. That was always going to be a danger when Jones was around.
If Labour wasn't already in enough trouble, the departure of Jones is going to twist the knife. It's going to make it especially difficult for Labour to win back the Maori vote, although there is one upside; Jones' replacement Kelvin Davis will be able to campaign against Hone Harawira with the resources of Parliament behind him one he becomes an MP again.
However Labour spins this, it is a genuine setback, and from what we've seen and read this morning, Labour's top brass was in crisis mode last night. Shane Jones' biggest contribution to the New Zealand political scene might just be his exit from politics.
