0 An innocent mistake, or a Freudian slip?

With speculation that David Shearer could be restored to his former role of leader of the Labour Party (although why would he want it?), we're wondering as to the cause of this Bay of Plenty Times headline:

Did someone at the BoP Times (or at APN's centralised production centre) make a cock-up, or does someone have inside information of an impending coup or even a fait accompli?

The plot thickens...

0 A reader e-mails...

This was in our inbox when we first logged on this morning:

Hi

Understandably there's been a lot of media speculation on the future of Cunliffe after "the letter".

I wonder if it's a coincidence that, in the last two or three days, sponsored posts from David Shearer have been turning up in my Facebook news feed.

Cheers,

 

Is David Shearer being lined up by forces in the Labour Party to "take one for the team", and lobby for his old job? Given that his poll ratings, seen at the time as dire, have actually been consistently higher than those Mr Cunliffe is enjoying, it can be argued that Mr Shearer was harshly done by. And to reassume the leadership from the man who white-anted him at every juncture would be sweet irony.

 

And those who are in danger of being out of work come 21st September might look at the suggestion and think "Well, it worked for Kevin Rudd". The threat of unemployment can be a powerful motivator...

 

0 The Dom-Post on Cunliffe

The Dominion-Post took a deep breath and waited for an extra day before penning an editorial on David Cunliffe. But the delay makes it no less condemnatory; under the headline Scratch that itch while you can David the editorial opines:

David Cunliffe itched to be Labour Party leader for years. After losing power in 2008, the party lumbered along under two failing leaders. He barely hid his ambitions to replace them.
Now, 10 months into his tenure, he should take a moment to enjoy the role. Barring a miraculous campaign performance, he'll be finished soon.
Two events this week have pinned Cunliffe to the wall. One is a 23 per cent poll rating - apocalyptic territory for a major party. The other is an 11-year-old letter that contradicted his flat denial that he had ever helped controversial businessman Donghua Liu.
Never mind that the poll may be an outlier. Never mind that the letter is a fairly bland document, the type that MPs send out in droves over the course of a political career. Never mind that dodgy memories are congenital in politicians, as Prime Minister John Key will confirm.
The heart of the problem is Cunliffe's judgment and temperament, which have been found lacking yet again. Under direct questions on a specific matter, about a public figure involved in repeated scandals, the Labour leader got it completely, insistently wrong.

The Donghua Liu situation has certainly harmed David Cunliffe's reputation. But it is the continuing flow of negative polling that is hurting the most. Even yesterday afternoon, the Roy Morgan poll had a yawning gap between National and any Labour/Green alliance. Those MP's towards the bottom end of Labour's list are going to be very nervous at the moment.

The editorial continues, noting an odd decision by the Labour leader to lambast potentially two thirds of his caucus:

He followed up the blunder by issuing veiled threats at caucus colleagues considering disloyalty - all but calling them "scabs".
If Cunliffe was ahead in the polls, or if this was an isolated misstep, he could shrug it off quickly. But his support is so low, and his gaffes so familiar, the impression will linger longer than the incident itself: that he is not up to running the country.
From his secret trust for donations to his leadership bid, to his laughable description of his $2.5 million Herne Bay home as a "doer-upper", Cunliffe has repeatedly made a fool of himself in awkward, revealing ways.
Combine those mistakes with a haughty, serious style, a tendency to preach instead of persuade, a fondness for vague rallying cries (with liberal talk of "Kiwis") instead of insights that speak to people's concerns, and Cunliffe's predicament is not surprising.
Of course, the self-fulfilling nature of bad polling plays a part, too. Watching a party go into freefall is something like a bank run; no-one wants to be the last supporter standing. But Cunliffe has failed to stop the panic. 

The point about the self-fulfilling nature of polling is very valid here. There have been three polls this week. Labour's best result was in the Herald-DigiPoll, which showed the party up marginally to 30.5%. But a party supported by less than a third of voters is not going to be able to lead a coalition government. Roy Morgan had Labour at 28.5%, and of course the nadir was the Stuff-Ipsos poll where Labour garnered just 23.2% support; less than one in four.

After either today or tomorrow, depending on how one interprets the words "the 3 months prior to the announced date of a general election" in Labour's constitution, a no-confidence vote in the leader can be triggered within the Labour caucus, and a new leader can be elected without having to go to the party and the unions. 

Replacing David Cunliffe in this manner would be extreme, and would risk alienating supporters and unions (and their dollars). We think it is an unlikely outcome, but it is one that cannot be ruled out if the next round of TV polls confirms this week's polling.

But the mere fact that this discussion is even taking place suggests Labour is not a happy place at the moment. Momentum plays a big role in politics, and right at the moment Labour has none. There will be a number of Labour MP's looking nervously at their prospects of employment beyond 20 September, and that cannot be good news for David Cunliffe.

0 Grant Robertson rejects "gotcha" politics

TVNZ's Breakfast programme had Grant Robertson and Judith Collins side by side this morning. Unsurprisingly, the main topic of conversation was David Cunliffe; here's the piece:

What interested us the most was Grant Robertson's reinvention as a stringent opponent of "gotcha" politics. It's great that he wants to spend the next three months talking about the things that matter to New Zealanders, like jobs, and the economy.

Unfortunately though, Mr Robertson has been so obsessed with getting Judith Collins' scalp since he first raised the Oravida issue in early March that he hasn't had a lot of time to talk about the things that matter to New Zealanders.

Mr Robertson has asked at least 13 primary questions of Judith Collins or the Prime Minister since he first raised the Oravida issue, plus a number of supplementaries to primary questions asked by other MP's, most notably David Cunliffe and Winston Peters. In addition, the "media centre" on Mr Robertson's page on the Labour Party website has multiple media releases put out by the MP or his media staffers.

Credit to Judith Collins though. She must have been heavily tempted to shred Grant Robertson after all the unpleasant things he has said about her and her husband in the last few months. But she sat serenely and full of grace, although the twinkle in her eye suggested that she may know more about the Donghua Liu donations to Labour than she was letting on; time will tell.

Perhaps Mr Robertson's latter-day conversion to having a strong dislike of "gotcha" politics has more to do with Labour currently being the "gottee" rather than the "gotter", if you'll pardon us inventing new words. Or perhaps it has something to do with the date. After all, after tomorrow, Labour can change its leader without having to ask the party and the trade unions, and this might just have been Grant Robertson trying to differentiate himself from David Cunliffe.

It will be interesting to see how long Grant Robertson's rejection of "gotcha" politics lasts.  

0 A poll sandwich

The two main newspaper groups have released political polls this week. If the Herald-Digi-Poll was bad news for the Labour Party, then they're not going to like this morning's Stuff-Ipsos poll, completing the poll sandwich.

But there's no escaping it; here's the bad news:

Labour's support has slumped to its lowest level since the 2011 election, with leader David Cunliffe battling for survival after it emerged he intervened in a residency application for Chinese businessman Donghua Liu.
In the latest Stuff.co.nz/Ipsos political poll, the party has dropped 6 percentage points to 23 per cent. National is soaring on 56 per cent, which would allow it to govern alone. Click here for full graphics. 
Cunliffe has failed to stop his party's slide in the poll since he took over as leader in September, and is now facing election humiliation. His support as preferred prime minister slipped to 11 per cent, down two points. Prime Minister John Key edged ahead, up three points to 51.4 per cent.
As he faced fire over the Liu allegations, Cunliffe insisted he retained the confidence of his caucus - but admitted he had broached the subject with senior colleagues.
Tomorrow a pre-election window opens, allowing the caucus to dump its leader without triggering the wider vote of the entire party's membership. After a wave of dismal results, the latest poll would leave Labour with 29 seats, meaning five MPs would get the chop if the election were held today. National would score 71 seats.
Our polling took place earlier this week, before the Liu revelations came to light. It shows disillusioned Labour supporters are now undecided where their loyalties lie. Respondents who voted Labour in 2011, and planned to do so in September, fell from 81.6 per cent in February to 61.3 per cent. The drop in support is greatest among 30 to 44-year-olds.
Ipsos managing director Matt Benson said past Labour voters were now unsure who to vote for.
"An increase in alternate party activity on the Left side may have traditional Labour voters weighing up their options and thinking again about Labour. On the other side, as the party options for conservative voters reduce, we are seeing them flock to National." 

This truly is a terrible poll for Labour, and it's not the news they needed this morning after a brutal day in the spotlight yesterday. Here's the poll in graphical form:

Every sandwich needs a filling. For this poll sandwich, the filling has been the revelations that Donghua Liu made donations to the Labour Party, and that Mr Cunliffe wrote to the then New Zealand Immigration Service on behalf of his constituent back in 2003, which was a time when Labour supported business migration from China. The latter revelation came just a day after Mr Cunliffe had denied ever advocating on behalf of Donghua Liu.

If Labour MP's were looking for an excuse to change jockeys in the run-up to the Big Race on September 20th, Mr Cunliffe has obliged. Add to that suggestions from this latest poll that five Labour MP's could be looking for employment after the General Election, and a casual mood for change within the party could become more urgent.

David Cunliffe was in a defiant mood yesterday afternoon; publicly, at least. But he flew to Auckland to appear on Campbell Live last night, and we wonder if there have been any behind-the-scenes discussions in his absence. We wonder if the Campbell Live appearance was a tactical error from Mr Cunliffe, rather than hunkering down in the War Room with his Chief of Staff Matt McCarten, and planning his strategy.

Today will be a very interesting day indeed. We heard whispers last night from a very surprising source not too distant from the Labour Party that two Labour MP's have been counting their numbers, and that one in particular believes they have enough support. This poll may be a catalyst to act, but it may equally be a catalyst not to act, and to wait for the post-election fallout.

Stay tuned; and we hope that Mr Cunliffe doesn't choke on his poll sandwich.

0 Tweet of the Day - 18 June 2014

Jami-Lee Ross has just tweeted this gem:

Mr Ross is dead right. Today is not the day for ANYONE in the Labour Party to be speculating about leadership bids.

Of course, after Friday, it's a whole new ball game...

0 More poll agony and ecstacy

In three months and three days, New Zealand goes to the polls to elect its 51st Parliament. And if the Labour Party wasn't already worried enough about poll trends, the Herald has heaped more misery on this morning.

The latest Herald-DigiPoll is out, and like other polls in the last couple of months, it's pretty emphatic. Herald deputy political editor Claire Trevett has the details:

The Internet-Mana Party would get two seats in Parliament based on the first major poll since the two parties cut a deal to stand together.
But, three months shy of the election, Labour is still struggling and the left bloc is well adrift from National, which could easily govern alone based on the Herald-DigiPoll survey.
The results for the Mana Party, Internet Party and Internet-Mana Party totalled 1.4 per cent in the survey - a modest start for the newly launched party which was the centre of attention in the lead-up to the polling period.
That is enough to get new Internet Party leader Laila Harre into Parliament if Mana leader Hone Harawira holds his Te Tai Tokerau electorate.
But the votes appear to have been at the expense of the Green Party which dropped to 11 per cent, down 2.5 points since the last Herald-DigiPoll survey in March.

That will worry the Greens, especially if Internet-Mana, bankrolled with $3 million from Kim Dotcom, starts to pick up more momentum.
Polling began on June 6, soon after Mana and Internet agreed to stand as a joint force to try to maximise the number of MPs Mr Harawira could take into Parliament under the "coat-tailing" provisions of MMP.
Although the deal was criticised by many commentators and rival political parties, 39 per cent of those polled said the Internet-Mana arrangement was a legitimate use of MMP while 43 per cent said it was an unprincipled rort.

That MegaMana is starting to cut into the Green vote is no surprise. Readers will remember that when Russel Norman visited Dotcom's rental property at Coatesville last year, he urged the Large German Gentleman to consider not starting a party for that very reason.

But the Greens' worries are small compared to those of Labour; Trevett continues:

With a party vote based on the poll of 50.4 per cent, National maintains a strong lead and is 20 points ahead of Labour which is up one to 30.5 per cent. National would have 64 seats, enough to govern without any support partners and 10 more seats than the left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Internet-Mana.
Labour leader David Cunliffe has rallied slightly, although Labour's efforts to beat the anti-immigration drum just before the poll began do not appear to have had much traction. Labour inched back over the 30 per cent mark and Mr Cunliffe's personal ratings as preferred Prime Minister have nudged up from 11 to 13 per cent since March.
He is still adrift of his high of 17 per cent immediately after his election last September and continues to poll lower than former leader David Shearer did. NZ First was steady on 3.6 per cent - not enough to return to Parliament though its support tends to lift during the campaign.
The poll indicates Prime Minister John Key has escaped the fallout from the trial and resignation of former Act MP John Banks, which broke the day before the poll began. Mr Key held steady at 66 per cent as preferred Prime Minister. Those who believed the Government was heading in the right direction lifted to 56 per cent - the highest since just before the 2011 election.
The poll of 750 eligible voters was taken from June 6 to June 15 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.6 per cent. There were 12.2 per cent undecided voters on the party vote.

This must be terribly discouraging for Mr Cunliffe and his Labour colleagues. They've thrown everything but the kitchen sink at National and Judith Collins in particular, and it's barely made a blind bit of difference. John Key remains the preferred Prime Minister for two thirds of those surveyed, whilst David Cunliffe is the preferred choice of less than one in seven New Zealanders.

And when Parliament resumes this afternoon after a two-week recess, sans John Banks, Labour will be on the defensive again. Instead of being able to attack the Government, Labour has its own donation woes, and if what we were hearing yesterday from a variety of unrelated people is true, yesterday's story is only the tip of the iceberg.

The clock is ticking on Labour. After Friday (i.e. three months out from the election), Labour can change leaders without going to the membership for another Labour's Got Talent tour. Have the polls yet reached the point where they might do a Mike Moore (1990), or will they stick with Mr Cunliffe then cut him adrift after what is looking likely to be a third successive defeat at the polls?

These are interesting times indeed, and the Herald-DigiPoll has just made them a whole lot more interesting!

0 Beware the Ides of June

Claire Trevett had an interesting column in the Herald yesterday. She made lots of comparisons to the TV programme Game of Thrones. Not having watched the programme, most of her references were over our head.

But then DPF drew our attention to the closing paragraphs of Ms Trevett's piece, namely this bit:

There is some suspicion about the influence of Cunliffe's chief of staff, Matt McCarten, who has past allegiances to the Alliance Party, now reborn through Laila Harre under the Internet Party banner, and Hone Harawira's Mana Party. He could well believe a deal in Te Tai Tokerau was a good idea. The MPs in question did get some return fire on David Cunliffe's Facebook page from Labour supporters.
But Cunliffe can't afford to ignore such strongly-held views in his caucus. He is about to head into his own danger zone. From June 20, Labour's caucus has a three-month window to change the leader without having to go through the party's new primary-style process giving its membership a vote.
If Cunliffe was thriving in the polls, he'd be on much safer ground to make such calls about the Te Tai Tokerau seat and the Internet Mana Party. There might be some grumbling but little else because there would be too much to lose by changing the leader. As things stand, it might not take much to spark a revolt whether a rival contender is ready and willing or not.

We weren't aware that Labour's amended leadership rules had a Get Out of Jail Free card. Is it possible that, should the next round of polls be as bad for Labour as the last one was, they might do a Mike Moore and kick David Cunliffe to touch to stem the bleeding?

There is of course one significant difference this time around. In 1990, Labour was in government, but the tide had gone out after David Lange's cup of tea, and Geoffrey Palmer's year of anonymous leadership. The SS Labour was already on course to crash into the Opposition benches, and Mike Moore's job was nothing more than to soften the impact a little.

Is there anyone in today's Labour Party who would be willing to be the sacrificial lamb? Grant Robertson is generally regarded as being next in the pecking order, but he may prefer to bide his time until October, when the dust has settled on the General Election. He would then be well poised to challenge David Cunliffe for the leadership, should Labour not be able to form a government, and should Cunliffe not fall on his sword as Helen Clark and Phil Goff did after their defeats.

We doubt that Labour would change horses so close to an election, but it is fascinating to know that they can, should polling go from bad to worse. That in itself will make any polls after 20th June much more interesting.

David Cunliffe needs to beware the Ides of June! 

0 Darien Fenton retires; is Clare Curran next?

Labour list MP Darien Fenton will leave Parliament at the General Election. Whether she has retired or whether she is being retired is a moot point. But Ms Fenton joins fellow unranked (Labour's caucus is ranked down to #25 of 34) MP Rajen Prasad in heading for greener pastures.

Interestingly, we blogged a prediction of this in September last year, courtesy of Patrick Gower from 3News; check this out:

Paddy Gower also tipped the imminent demise of Clare Curran. Neither she nor Ms Fenton were Cunliffe loyalists, as evidenced by their low rankings within Labour's caucus. Will Clare Curran be next to be pensioned off?

And as a final irony, Darien Fenton came to Parliament after many years as the general secretary of the Service and Food Workers' Union. Isn't it ironic that Labour's 2012 rule change gave the unions the determining vote in Labour leadership contests, and Ms Fenton's political career has been ended by the bloke who the unions wanted to lead the Labour Party.