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2014 General Election
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Campbell Live
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David Cunliffe
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Donghua Liu
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Herald DigiPoll
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Immigration
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Labour leadership
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Labour Party
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Matt McCarten
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Political polls
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Stuff-Ipsos poll
The two main newspaper groups have released political polls this week. If the Herald-Digi-Poll was bad news for the Labour Party, then they're not going to like this morning's Stuff-Ipsos poll, completing the poll sandwich.
But there's no escaping it; here's the bad news:
Labour's support has slumped to its lowest level since the 2011 election, with leader David Cunliffe battling for survival after it emerged he intervened in a residency application for Chinese businessman Donghua Liu.
In the latest Stuff.co.nz/Ipsos political poll, the party has dropped 6 percentage points to 23 per cent. National is soaring on 56 per cent, which would allow it to govern alone. Click here for full graphics.
Cunliffe has failed to stop his party's slide in the poll since he took over as leader in September, and is now facing election humiliation. His support as preferred prime minister slipped to 11 per cent, down two points. Prime Minister John Key edged ahead, up three points to 51.4 per cent.
As he faced fire over the Liu allegations, Cunliffe insisted he retained the confidence of his caucus - but admitted he had broached the subject with senior colleagues.
Tomorrow a pre-election window opens, allowing the caucus to dump its leader without triggering the wider vote of the entire party's membership. After a wave of dismal results, the latest poll would leave Labour with 29 seats, meaning five MPs would get the chop if the election were held today. National would score 71 seats.
Our polling took place earlier this week, before the Liu revelations came to light. It shows disillusioned Labour supporters are now undecided where their loyalties lie. Respondents who voted Labour in 2011, and planned to do so in September, fell from 81.6 per cent in February to 61.3 per cent. The drop in support is greatest among 30 to 44-year-olds.
Ipsos managing director Matt Benson said past Labour voters were now unsure who to vote for.
"An increase in alternate party activity on the Left side may have traditional Labour voters weighing up their options and thinking again about Labour. On the other side, as the party options for conservative voters reduce, we are seeing them flock to National."
This truly is a terrible poll for Labour, and it's not the news they needed this morning after a brutal day in the spotlight yesterday. Here's the poll in graphical form:
Every sandwich needs a filling. For this poll sandwich, the filling has been the revelations that Donghua Liu made donations to the Labour Party, and that Mr Cunliffe wrote to the then New Zealand Immigration Service on behalf of his constituent back in 2003, which was a time when Labour supported business migration from China. The latter revelation came just a day after Mr Cunliffe had denied ever advocating on behalf of Donghua Liu.
If Labour MP's were looking for an excuse to change jockeys in the run-up to the Big Race on September 20th, Mr Cunliffe has obliged. Add to that suggestions from this latest poll that five Labour MP's could be looking for employment after the General Election, and a casual mood for change within the party could become more urgent.
David Cunliffe was in a defiant mood yesterday afternoon; publicly, at least. But he flew to Auckland to appear on Campbell Live last night, and we wonder if there have been any behind-the-scenes discussions in his absence. We wonder if the Campbell Live appearance was a tactical error from Mr Cunliffe, rather than hunkering down in the War Room with his Chief of Staff Matt McCarten, and planning his strategy.
Today will be a very interesting day indeed. We heard whispers last night from a very surprising source not too distant from the Labour Party that two Labour MP's have been counting their numbers, and that one in particular believes they have enough support. This poll may be a catalyst to act, but it may equally be a catalyst not to act, and to wait for the post-election fallout.
Stay tuned; and we hope that Mr Cunliffe doesn't choke on his poll sandwich.
