Posted by Blogger Name. Category:
David Cunliffe
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Dominion-Post
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Donghua Liu
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Labour leadership
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Labour Party
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Political polls
The Dominion-Post took a deep breath and waited for an extra day before penning an editorial on David Cunliffe. But the delay makes it no less condemnatory; under the headline Scratch that itch while you can David the editorial opines:
David Cunliffe itched to be Labour Party leader for years. After losing power in 2008, the party lumbered along under two failing leaders. He barely hid his ambitions to replace them.
Now, 10 months into his tenure, he should take a moment to enjoy the role. Barring a miraculous campaign performance, he'll be finished soon.
Two events this week have pinned Cunliffe to the wall. One is a 23 per cent poll rating - apocalyptic territory for a major party. The other is an 11-year-old letter that contradicted his flat denial that he had ever helped controversial businessman Donghua Liu.
Never mind that the poll may be an outlier. Never mind that the letter is a fairly bland document, the type that MPs send out in droves over the course of a political career. Never mind that dodgy memories are congenital in politicians, as Prime Minister John Key will confirm.
The heart of the problem is Cunliffe's judgment and temperament, which have been found lacking yet again. Under direct questions on a specific matter, about a public figure involved in repeated scandals, the Labour leader got it completely, insistently wrong.
The Donghua Liu situation has certainly harmed David Cunliffe's reputation. But it is the continuing flow of negative polling that is hurting the most. Even yesterday afternoon, the Roy Morgan poll had a yawning gap between National and any Labour/Green alliance. Those MP's towards the bottom end of Labour's list are going to be very nervous at the moment.
The editorial continues, noting an odd decision by the Labour leader to lambast potentially two thirds of his caucus:
He followed up the blunder by issuing veiled threats at caucus colleagues considering disloyalty - all but calling them "scabs".
If Cunliffe was ahead in the polls, or if this was an isolated misstep, he could shrug it off quickly. But his support is so low, and his gaffes so familiar, the impression will linger longer than the incident itself: that he is not up to running the country.
From his secret trust for donations to his leadership bid, to his laughable description of his $2.5 million Herne Bay home as a "doer-upper", Cunliffe has repeatedly made a fool of himself in awkward, revealing ways.
Combine those mistakes with a haughty, serious style, a tendency to preach instead of persuade, a fondness for vague rallying cries (with liberal talk of "Kiwis") instead of insights that speak to people's concerns, and Cunliffe's predicament is not surprising.
Of course, the self-fulfilling nature of bad polling plays a part, too. Watching a party go into freefall is something like a bank run; no-one wants to be the last supporter standing. But Cunliffe has failed to stop the panic.
The point about the self-fulfilling nature of polling is very valid here. There have been three polls this week. Labour's best result was in the Herald-DigiPoll, which showed the party up marginally to 30.5%. But a party supported by less than a third of voters is not going to be able to lead a coalition government. Roy Morgan had Labour at 28.5%, and of course the nadir was the Stuff-Ipsos poll where Labour garnered just 23.2% support; less than one in four.
After either today or tomorrow, depending on how one interprets the words "the 3 months prior to the announced date of a general election" in Labour's constitution, a no-confidence vote in the leader can be triggered within the Labour caucus, and a new leader can be elected without having to go to the party and the unions.
Replacing David Cunliffe in this manner would be extreme, and would risk alienating supporters and unions (and their dollars). We think it is an unlikely outcome, but it is one that cannot be ruled out if the next round of TV polls confirms this week's polling.
But the mere fact that this discussion is even taking place suggests Labour is not a happy place at the moment. Momentum plays a big role in politics, and right at the moment Labour has none. There will be a number of Labour MP's looking nervously at their prospects of employment beyond 20 September, and that cannot be good news for David Cunliffe.
