Fresh headache for Museveni as Ethiopia army enters Juba.
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Ethiopian soldiers in Barentu, Eritrea in this photo taken in 2000.
Ninety have been deployed in South Sudan. PHOTO | FILE
The first group of 90 Ethiopian peacekeepers have arrived in the South
Sudan capital Juba, as the elements of Igad's regional Protection and
Deterrent Force begin to fall into place.
Their arrival a fortnight ago, however, does not pave the way for the
near-term withdrawal of Ugandan troops from the conflict as the
numbers are far below the required 2,500 boots on the ground.
But experts still see the deployment as a potential game changer as it
places Ethiopia squarely at the centre of efforts to return peace to
South Sudan.
It also raises questions on how the Ugandan and Ethiopian militaries
will relate in the volatile country. The two countries are said to
have held a couple of high-level meetings in the past four months.
Commenting on the impact of this on Uganda's tenure in Juba, Uganda
People's Defence Force deputy spokesperson Maj Henry Obbo said: "The
force that has arrived is very small and they are here just to prepare
the ground for the regional force. When the other units are fully on
the ground, we shall withdraw."
The Riek Machar side in the conflict has demanded the withdrawal of
Ugandan troops as a precondition for further progress in the peace
negotiation.
READ: Machar rebuffs Museveni's overtures
Igad confirmed the Ethiopian deployment. "The information that is
publicly available on the force at the moment is scanty. What I can
tell you certainly is that the Igad Monitoring and Verification
Mechanism now forms part of UNMISS under the mission's reinvigorated
mandate -- and a first detachment of Ethiopian troops within the Igad
MVM PF arrangement arrived in Juba towards the third week of last
month," said Igad spokesperson Tigist Hailu.
Kenya and Rwanda are supposed to contribute troops for the mission but
are yet to do so. The so-called Troika countries -- the US, Norway and
UK -- who had promised to finance the force are yet to commit funding
to the mission.
READ: Broke Igad fails to stop the war
The regional force is expected to provide protection for the Igad
monitors investigating human-rights abuses and protect key
installation in addition to performing UNMISS tasks.
It will also replace the estimated 4,000 Ugandan troops that have been
standing between former vice president Riek Machar's rebels and the
government in Juba.
The 2,500 Igad troops are supposed to form part of the 12,500 strong
United Nations Mission in South Sudan.
Currently, UNMISS has 7,000 troops on the ground, a number it is
supposed to top up by 3,000.
However, a key challenge is the pace of deployment of the additional
forces as well as the disposition of these forces in fulfilling the
mandate to protect civilians.
Though the UNMISS troops are supposed to deploy in August, it remains
unclear what the deployment schedule will be for the approximately
2,500 troops expected to serve in the Igad Protection Force under the
UNMISS chain of command.
READ: UN extends South Sudan mission
A related issue is the anticipated participation of an infantry
battalion from China in UNMISS. China has a strong economic stake in
the oil sector in South Sudan, and it has been reported that it may
primarily be interested in defending its workers at oil facilities.
READ: Rebels oppose guarding of South Sudan oil installations
"A key question is how amenable these troops will be to protecting
civilians not directly linked to these facilities," said the UN
Security Council report for June.
While Ethiopia is also hosting and chairing the peace negotiations,
information indicates that the Security Council last week tipped an
Ethiopian general to command the enlarged UNMISS force.
The new role puts Ethiopia at the centre of the South Sudan war.
Ethiopia already has over 2,000 troops as part of the UN troops in the
Abyei region, the contested border area of South Sudan and Sudan. This
UN group is also commanded by an Ethiopian general.
"This may turn out to be a game changer. The burden of bringing peace
may fall on them now that other countries that were supposed to deploy
are quiet," said regional security analyst David Pulkol, formerly
chief of Uganda's external intelligence agency.
"Ethiopia is fed up with the ping pong between Machar and Kiir. They
want to see an end to the war and have the capacity to even deploy
22,000 troops or more. The peace talks are not making any headway now;
the talks were postponed indefinitely and we need a way forward," said
an Ethiopian official who preferred anonymity.
Uganda deployed troops in South Sudan on December 15, 2013. In March,
Kampala said that it was ready to withdraw from South Sudan as soon as
the Igad led force was on the ground. However, as Uganda waits for the
vacuum to be filled, there is rethinking in Kampala on how they would
work with Ethiopia.
Ethiopia needs to play a neutral force and not be seen to side with Dr
Machar, since Uganda has declared support for President Kiir and its
troops are fighting alongside the South Sudanese army.
"They must find a working position with Ethiopia and stop the
situation from degenerating. The two countries must take a decision to
identify and empower a moderate group to take charge and isolate the
extremists," said Mr Pulkol.
Said the Ethiopian source: "The hard question for us is whether we are
just going to watch as the situation deteriorate. There is a political
vacuum and tension is building in Juba."
EM
On the 49th Parallel
Thé Mulindwas Communication Group
"With Yoweri Museveni, Ssabassajja and Dr. Kiiza Besigye, Uganda is in anarchy"
Kuungana Mulindwa Mawasiliano Kikundi
"Pamoja na Yoweri Museveni, Ssabassajja na Dk. Kiiza Besigye, Uganda ni katika machafuko"
