0 Holiday Highway, Holiday Highway, Holiday Highway, Great Idea!

Is the no policy that Labour will not flip-flop over? It would seem not.

And the latest flip-flop is over the Puhoi to Wellsford upgrade to State Highway One north of Auckland; that piece of road known by opposition parties as the Holiday Highway. Here's a potted summary of Labour's opposition:

• 2011 - Phil Goff wants it scrapped
• 2012 - Phil Twyford calls for the Government to "take a hard look" at the road, because it doesn't stack up.
• 2013 - Labour continues to oppose the road, and Holiday Highway bashing continues unabated

Since before the 2011 election Labour's opposition to Puhoi to Wellsford has been constant. What you see above is only a small sample of "anti" stories.

But now, led by renegade List MP Kelvin Davis, Labour has done a back-flip, prompting this presser from Gerry Brownlee:

Gerry Brownlee

15 July, 2014

Labour’s panicked U-turn on the road from Puhoi to Wellsford

Backed into a corner and on the wrong side of public opinion, Labour is making up major policy on the hoof with its announcement it now supports the Puhoi to Wellsford Road of National Significance, Transport Minister Gerry Brownlee says.
“The brave but sensible stance of Northland list MP Kelvin Davis to stand up to the Labour leadership and state the obvious – that most people in the north support the Puhoi to Wellsford upgrade of State Highway 1 – has led to an immediate U-turn by his party today with the statement by Labour Transport Spokesman Phil Twyford that Labour would no longer cancel the road, but postpone its construction,” Mr Brownlee says.
“This is a spectacular U-turn for Labour, and as with all such maneuverers there is significant risk, and the potential for unintended consequences.
“For Labour it now raises the huge question of where the money is coming from for its commitment to immediately begin building Auckland’s City Rail Link.
“National is committed to co-funding construction of the rail link on a schedule that will see it delivered ahead of when Auckland City’s own research says it’s required.
“Labour was going to fund construction of the link from next year with money the Government has committed to building the Puhoi to Wellsford highway.
“Now it has to tell the people of Northland how long they’ll have to wait for their much-need highway upgrade, and where the $1.38 billion will come from to build it.
“That’s assuming Labour is still committed to beginning construction of the City Rail Link next year.
“Or does Mr Twyford have as big a surprise for Aucklanders today as he just delivered to the people of Northland this morning?
“Labour’s policy processes are woefully inadequate and clearly reliant on knee-jerk reactions,” Mr Brownlee says.

 

Gerry Brownlee is right; this is knee-jerk politics from Labour and especially from Phil Twyford. Alfred Ngaro will be looking forward to Mr Twyford telling the good folk of Te Atatu they won't be getting better train services any time soon.

 

Whilst we welcome this particular u-turn by Labour, it is a u-turn nonetheless. But with Labour v2014, that's par for the course. Why would we expect anything else?

0 Where's the leader gone?

Labour has launched a new website design, with the emphasis on the message it launched at the weekend to "Vote Positive".

But an alert Keeping Stock reader has alerted us to the fact that someone seems to be largely missing from the banner header; check this out:

In urging New Zealanders to Vote Positive, it would appear that Labour has decided, as it did in 2011 with then-leader Phil Goff, people are more likely to vote for them if they don't see David Cunliffe.

And who knows; it might just work!


Footnote: No; the image hasn't been cropped or digitally altered to exclude David Cunliffe (at our end, anyway). Here's exactly how it appears online.

0 Labour can only spend it once

We blogged last week about Bill English's insight to Parliament during Tuesday's Question Time. That insight was that Labour had factored in the proceeds of the partial asset sales it opposed so vehemently into the party's alternative budget, and the money was going to be spent. Here's what Mr English said to Parliament:

Hon BILL ENGLISH : I have seen reports from an unlikely source: an alternative budget that was issued in the last week or two. The reports indicate that this alternative approach to the Government’s finances will continue the current Government’s approach of using proceeds from the share offer programme. The Opposition budget includes the $4.7 billion proceeds from the asset sales being spent on public assets, which was rather a surprise given that they had spent 4 years vigorously opposing the policy.

Now we realise with Labour policy, the final policy bears little resemblance to what is first released. And this is no exception; TVNZ reports:

Labour would look at buying back state assets on a "case-by-case" basis, says the party's leader David Cunliffe.
"We may well, and we would like to," Mr Cunliffe told TVNZ's Q+A this morning.
"And we will take opportunities as they arise and there'll be more to say about that issue between now and the election I promise you," he added.

Is it any wonder that David Cunliffe is being mocked for his "yeah,  nah" pronouncements on policy issues?  He can only spend the money in the Future Investment Fund established by National once. And Labour's alternative budget has already accounted for that.

Does David Cunliffe not realise that he can only spend that money once? Either it is part of spending which Labour has already committed to in its alternative budget, or it is available to buy back the minority shareholding in SOE's. But it cannot be both.

It looks as though David Cunliffe is heading towards a similar moment to that which sunk Phil Goff in 2011, whilst Labour continues to promise to spend up large like drunken sailors:

0 Beware the Ides of June

Claire Trevett had an interesting column in the Herald yesterday. She made lots of comparisons to the TV programme Game of Thrones. Not having watched the programme, most of her references were over our head.

But then DPF drew our attention to the closing paragraphs of Ms Trevett's piece, namely this bit:

There is some suspicion about the influence of Cunliffe's chief of staff, Matt McCarten, who has past allegiances to the Alliance Party, now reborn through Laila Harre under the Internet Party banner, and Hone Harawira's Mana Party. He could well believe a deal in Te Tai Tokerau was a good idea. The MPs in question did get some return fire on David Cunliffe's Facebook page from Labour supporters.
But Cunliffe can't afford to ignore such strongly-held views in his caucus. He is about to head into his own danger zone. From June 20, Labour's caucus has a three-month window to change the leader without having to go through the party's new primary-style process giving its membership a vote.
If Cunliffe was thriving in the polls, he'd be on much safer ground to make such calls about the Te Tai Tokerau seat and the Internet Mana Party. There might be some grumbling but little else because there would be too much to lose by changing the leader. As things stand, it might not take much to spark a revolt whether a rival contender is ready and willing or not.

We weren't aware that Labour's amended leadership rules had a Get Out of Jail Free card. Is it possible that, should the next round of polls be as bad for Labour as the last one was, they might do a Mike Moore and kick David Cunliffe to touch to stem the bleeding?

There is of course one significant difference this time around. In 1990, Labour was in government, but the tide had gone out after David Lange's cup of tea, and Geoffrey Palmer's year of anonymous leadership. The SS Labour was already on course to crash into the Opposition benches, and Mike Moore's job was nothing more than to soften the impact a little.

Is there anyone in today's Labour Party who would be willing to be the sacrificial lamb? Grant Robertson is generally regarded as being next in the pecking order, but he may prefer to bide his time until October, when the dust has settled on the General Election. He would then be well poised to challenge David Cunliffe for the leadership, should Labour not be able to form a government, and should Cunliffe not fall on his sword as Helen Clark and Phil Goff did after their defeats.

We doubt that Labour would change horses so close to an election, but it is fascinating to know that they can, should polling go from bad to worse. That in itself will make any polls after 20th June much more interesting.

David Cunliffe needs to beware the Ides of June! 

0 White-anting in Labour? Surely not...

Is David Cunliffe being white-anted again? You'd have to wonder after reading Andrea Vance's story on Stuff:

Senior Labour Party MPs have used social media to attack the alliance struck between Mana and the Internet Party.
Former leaders Phil Goff and David Shearer, and Rimutaka MP Chris Hipkins, are among those who have objected to the deal. It could see MPs from Kim Dotcom’s fledging political vehicle enter Parliament on the ‘‘coat-tails’’ of a victory for Hone Harawira in Te Tai Tokerau.
The strong opposition from within Labour could make post-election coalition talks tricky.
Goff says he feel strongly about Dotcom’s ‘‘pure political opportunism’’, citing his previous donations to ACT MP John Banks, now the subject of a court case. ‘‘He wants to be able to influence and control politicians.’’
Goff says he was previously ‘‘very critical’’ of National for exploiting MMP and failing to implement recommendations from the Electoral Commission to abolish the provision.
‘‘I’m scarcely likely to endorse another rort ...I’m being entirely consistent,’’ he said.
Goff says he made his feelings clear to the Labour caucus. ‘‘It will be the decision of the party leadership...but I see problems in creating a coalition where the philosophies and principle of people that you are trying to enter into a coalition with is unclear because they seem to be coming from diametrically opposed positions.’’
Those  views were also reflected in a passionate Facebook post at the weekend. Shearer also used the social media site to write that although he wished the Internet-Mana ‘‘marriage’’ well, he knew ‘‘it’s going to end badly.’’
And on Twitter last week, Hipkins posted: ‘‘The good old days, when political parties formed from movements. Now all it takes is a couple of million and some unprincipled sellouts.’’ 

Now getting all high-and-mighty and having an attack of principles is one thing, but it's not something you'd usually associate with the Labour Party. But Ms Vance makes a very interesting point:

All three MPs were linked to the Anyone But Cunliffe [ABC] faction - who were opposed to David Cunliffe assuming leadership of the party. However, a Labour source played down talk of more division, saying all three were close to Te Tai Tokerau candidate Kelvin Davis.
Davis himself posted on Twitter: ‘‘Bro, I think of the people of Te Tai Tokerau, not Sergeant Shultz.’’  He was referring to Dotcom’s German origins.
A spokesman for Labour said Cunliffe was ‘‘off the grid’’ and not available for comment. 

Kelvin Davis is rapidly emerging as a lightning rod for the ABC faction, which as well as the three chaps named above includes the likes of Annette King, Trevor Mallard and Clayton Cosgrove. 

There's a test coming for David Cunliffe's leadership of the Labour Party. Will he support Kelvin Davis wholeheartedly in an attempt to wrench Te Tai Tokerau from Hone Harawira's grip? Or will he take the path of least resistance, and give MegaMana an armchair ride into Parliament by campaigning softly in the far North? 

Mr Cunliffe is on a hiding to nothing here. He is already deeply unpopular with a large portion of his caucus. But he will also need every possible coalition option if he is to have any chance of forming a government after the General Election.

No one said it would be easy...

0 Now, about that export crisis...

New Zealand's export crisis has deepened further. There must be a crisis in exporting; after all Labour, the Greens and Winston First keep telling us that there is a crisis, and they wouldn't tell fibs, would they?

Well yes; they would, and they have been; Scoop reports:

New Zealand's trade surplus narrowed more than expected in April as exports fell more than imports, driven by a drop in shipments of dairy products and meat.
The trade surplus was $534 million in April, from a revised $935 million in March, and $171 million a year earlier, according to Statistics New Zealand. The annual trade balance turned to surplus of $1.19 billion, or about 2.3 percent of exports, from a deficit of $687 million a year earlier. Economists polled by Reuters predicted a monthly surplus of $667 million and an annual surplus of $1.3 billion.
Exports fell 11 percent to $4.5 million in April, for an annual increase of 9.5 to $50.6 billion. Imports declined 4 percent to $3.96 million in the month, with an annual increase of 5.3 percent to $49.4 billion.
Milk powder, butter and cheese exports rose 36 percent to $1.22 billion in April from the same month last year, for an annual increase of 33 percent to $15.2 billion. Meat and edible offal rose 5.2 percent in the month to $585 million for an annual gain of 3.5 percent to $5.5 billion.
The trend for the dairy exports showed a seasonally adjusted 1.8 percent fall this month and is now 5.4 percent lower than December's peak, while meat and edible offal exports fell 5.9 percent, Statistics NZ said. Both export groups reported lower volume in the month - milk powder, butter and cheese volumes fell 5.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted 216 tonnes and meat and edible offal fell 8 percent to 73 tonnes. 
"Exports have begun their normal seasonal decline," Michael Gordon, a Westpac Banking Corp senior economist, wrote in a note. "The fall this month was driven by quantities rather than prices, with dairy products down 5 percent and meat down 8 percent by volume. While dairy prices in the GlobalDairyTrade auction system have fallen sharply since March, these prices related to delivery at future dates, so the impact should start to show up in the trade figures in the next few months."

That we are exporting more than we are importing is good news, even if things are starting to slow as they traditionally do over winter. Doubtless the opposition parties will seize of the seasonal decline as incontrovertible evidence that exporting is indeed in crisis.

And for those who think that trading with China is bad, check this out:

Exports to China, the biggest market for New Zealand, jumped 38 percent to $895 million in April for an annual gain of 52 percent to $11.43 billion, or 23 percent of all exports. Imports from China lifted 7.4 percent to $631 million in the month, to an annual increase of 8.5 percent to $8.4 billion.

China has become a very important market for New Zealand, and China's growing middle class seems to have an unquenchable appetite for our produce. Phil Goff should again be praised for his determination to push through the China FTA, which makes Labour's talking down of the export sector now even more mysterious.

0 Show us the money Mr Cunliffe

Phil Goff's credibility as Labour leader was blown apart in the "Show me the money" debate in Christchurch in 2011. Here's a reminder in case you've forgotten:

Now, three years later, David Cunliffe is leaving himself and Labour wide open to similar "Show me the money" taunts from John Key and his MP's; 3News reports:

Labour says New Zealanders can have confidence it's getting its numbers right despite dumping a Treasury staff member from their position in the leader's office.

Radio Live revealed a long-standing Treasury secondment has been terminated after a dispute over who should pay their salary.

This now leaves Labour with no independent number-cruncher, but leader David Cunliffe says his office has a strong policy team.

"We have very high grade, quantitative analysis and economic modelling skills in our office," says Mr Cunliffe. "The team is led by the Honourable David Parker, who has my absolute confidence."

Economic Development Minister Steven Joyce says many of Labour's policies don not add up and he is not surprised to hear there has been no input from Treasury.

What has happened here is that Labour has effectively sacked the seconded staff from Treasury, in favour of compiling its own numbers and costing its own policies. In some places that would be called creative accounting.

Pardon our naivety, but we would have thought that having policies independently costed would have been a strong selling point. Instead Labour is going to rely on its own numbers straight from the War Room, and free from any skerrick of independent scrutiny. We can see that working; not!

We reckon that the Two Davids are setting themselves up to fail. But hey; who are we to stop them?

FOOTNOTE: For those readers who aren't familiar with the origins of the "Show me the money" line, check out this video clip which is probably NSFW (not suitable for work); unless you work in Labour's War Room!

0 Quote of the Day - 17 May 2014

We won't copy vast tracts of Fran O'Sullivan's excellent column in this morning's Herald. We simply suggest that you go here and have a read for yourself.

But this portion stuck out, and is our Quote of the Day (with our emphasis added):

These post-Budget lunches are a marquee event on the business calendar. They are where Key not only explains the Budget but also charts the future in a compelling way designed to engender confidence so business people keep on investing, venturing out into the world to tackle tough markets - and employing staff.
The protesters outside the Sky City Convention Centre didn't get this.
The people who slagged off the guests (for instance - the business organisation leader accused of being a "bloated capitalist") don't seem to get it that business success ultimately underwrites jobs.
The protesters disregard the fact that many New Zealand businesses were put through the wringer by the Global Financial Crisis. People have worked hard to get their firms on to a sufficiently sound footing that they are now confident enough to take a few risks and grow their businesses.
It's a good space for New Zealand to be in.
The protesters were so dumb that they hadn't worked out that the business guests who openly walked past them to take another route into the centre were doing so for a purpose.
Instead they charged a door that was never going to be opened to them or anyone else.
This misjudgment is not confined to protesters.

Fran O'Sullivan is spot on. The protestors yesterday seem to have forgotten that the Budget invests $500m into families via  a range of measure. There wasn't much in it for the "bloated capitalists" who do most of the employing in New Zealand. As one wag put it yesterday, that's what happens when you organise the post-Budget protest pre-Budget!

And Labour has misjudged John Key ever since he entered Parliament almost twelve years ago. The underestimated him as he became National's Finance spokesman where he frequently got the better of Michael Cullen, and when he became Leader of the Opposition. 

Helen Clark thought that the Leaders' Debates against Key in 2008 would be a doddle. Instead it was she who lost the plot, famously accusing the PM-in-waiting of having to shout down his family at home. Key saw of Ms Clark, followed in quick succession by Phil Goff and David Shearer, whilst David Cunliffe shows no signs of having learned anything.

Long may the Labour Party continue to misjudge and underestimate John Key.

0 Soper on Cunliffe and fudge

Barry Soper's Soapbix editorial piece on Newstalk ZB is a nice mix of fact and satire. And he's certainly seen through David Cunliffe's fudging yesterday. Under the heading Cunliffe fudged his budget reaction Soper opines:

Politics in this country is a funny old business. If you're on one side of the fence you'll always complain about those on the other side, regardless of what they're doing or saying.
'The Dipton Drawler' Bill English could have delivered election year winners like free healthcare for all, free education - including university, free rest home care for the elderly, an increase in the minimum living wage to $20 an hour and the immediate settling of all Treaty claims and still his opponents would complain and probably claim he was being irresponsible.
As it is, he wandered into Labour's patch by spending half of the $1 billion he'd earmarked for splashing out for his sixth Budget on families. Paid parental leave is being increased by four weeks, kids under 13 will be able to go to the doctor for nothing and even registering your car's going to become more than $100 cheaper. They're just a few of the election sweeteners on offer.
Labour's bitterly complaining though. The complaint that The Tories are looking after their rich mates is a little difficult to fathom and so is their chant that it's a 'Cabinet Club annual report'. 
It's doubtful the donors to the Tories will be popping the champagne corks over this one considering the top 12 percent of wage earners are paying more than half the tax.

We agree with Soper about the "Cabinet Club" Budget. As we blogged earlier this morning, the speech that Russel Norman delivered yesterday bore little relativity to the Budget delivered by the Dipton Drawler, Bill English. There certainly wasn't much in the Budget for John Key's Rich Prick mates. It hasn't stopped a sell-out crowd from paying to hear the PM at Sky City this afternoon, even if they had to get past rent-a-mob first.

But it is David Cunliffe for whom Soper has saved his best:

'Martin Luther' Cunliffe was thumping the tub and came up with what sounded like a good line describing the offering as a 'Fudge-It Budget'. The trouble is that it's the same line used back in 2002 by Rodney 'Thick' Hide to describe 'Savage Mickey' Cullen's Budget, although Hide was a little more inventive when he said it was sickly sweet with no substance.
Clearly Cunliffe thought he could get away with it but hadn't counted on the man sitting beside the fulminating John Kiwi. Bill English was the Tory leader back then and Cullen's 'Fudge It Budget' didn't seem to do Labour any harm. They trashed National to it's biggest ever defeat.
So if that's the success of 'Fudge-It Budgets', then The Drawler will be laughing all the way to the ballot box! 

Quite so. David Cunliffe's speech yesterday was big on the theatricals, but lacking in substance. Nor was it a Phil Goff vein-popping special, or a clinical Helen Clark performance.

Instead David Cunliffe, as Soper notes, fudged his opportunity, recycling his description of the Budget in the same way that Labour is recycling the policies that were strongly rejected in 2011. Perhaps Mr Cunliffe needs to give up on the recycled fudge, and go and get some honey from his Herne Bay beehive, because on the basis of yesterday's performance, that's the only beehive in his immediate future.

0 Cash for access?

The Botany branch of the Labour Party held a fundraiser over the weekend at the Lucky Fortune restaurant.

Interestingly, after all the protestations this week about "cash for access" and dodgy fundraising dinners for wealthy Asian guests, a number of senior Labour MP's attended, as you will see in the photographs below.

David Cunliffe, David Parker, Phil Goff and Jacinda Ardern; the former Labour leader, the current leader and deputy and the woman tipped to be the next Helen Clark were all in attendance at a dinner which by Botany Labour's own admission had the purpose of raising money for the party. We don't know how much it cost, or how much was raised, but that's largely irrelevant.

We need your help here; we can't decide whether the decision by those MP's named above to attend a cash-for-access dinner whilst they are protesting about National's alleged cash-for-access dinners is:

• appalling judgement by Ms Ardern and Messrs Cunliffe, Parker and Goff, or
• absolute arrogance, or
• complete and utter hypocrisy

It may in fact be all three, but you're welcome to leave a comment and indicate your preference. In the meantime though, the true agenda continues to emerge.

At 9am, we heard David Cunliffe say on Newstalk ZB's news that "it's time to have a conversation" about taxpayer funding for political parties. Might the reason for wanting to have that conversation be because donations to the Labour Party have all but dried up since Mr Cunliffe was elected as leader?

Make no mistake Dear Readers; rather than going out and raising money the traditional way, Labour and the Greens want to pick your pocket - again. And we don't know about you, but we can think of plenty of things we'd rather our hard-earned tax dollar was spent on than politicians; especially when David Cunliffe is promising to tax the bejesus out of those who dare to earn reasonable coin if he ever becomes Prime Minister.

0 Small on the Jones "cluster failure"

Vernon Small is one of the more senior members of Parliament's Press Gallery. He has seen more MP's come and more MP's go than most of us have had hot dinners. So he's not given to going overboard.

That makes his column in yesterday's Dominion-Post even more noteworthy. Under the heading Church collapsed? Buy a house Small opines:

Helen Clark would have lowered her voice and with a hint of authority - and a side order of menace - drawled "it's time to move on".
Labour leader David Cunliffe must be hoping he can move the party, and the political agenda, on after what is surely the heart of darkness of his political year.
If things could get any worse than the cluster failure around Shane Jones' sudden departure to work for a government he was supposed to want out of office, it is hard to see what they could be.

When Mr Small says "cluster failure", we're pretty sure that he means a variant of that phrase, which also starts with "cluster", followed by the letter "f". But the Dom-Post is a polite newspaper, and such a turn of phrase might be frowned upon by Small's editor. However, we all get the picture.

And it has been a shocker of a week for David Cunliffe and his party. Shane Jones quite literally lobbed the electoral equivalent of a hand grenade into Labour's War Room, and the party's handling of the issue is deserving of the "clusterf#ck" label.

Small continues:

The danger for Cunliffe, in the wake of Jones' departure, is that with some in the party wading knee deep in vitriol it will spill over into civil war, revisiting the divisions of the 2012 annual conference. (That's the one where according to some Cunliffites the media fabricated Cunliffe's challenge to David Shearer's leadership.)
Already the same divisions are surfacing. On one side there are the "good riddance to Jones" merchants who seem to believe the broad church party would have a wider appeal if its MPs came from a smaller chapel. It sometimes seems they would rather people - voters - changed their ways rather than the party appealed to a broader array of views.
On the other side are those who lament the loss of Jones' appeal to Maori, soft centrist or conservative National voters but use his supposed straight talking - too many "geldings" in the party etc - to attack identity politics.
At times it becomes indistinguishable from prejudice and downplays the strong strand of liberal egalitarianism and concern for human rights at the party's core. Both axes seem to think tolerance is essential, as long as you agree with me.
Cunliffe's task is to heal those wounds yet again - as Clark mostly did after her messy coup against Mike Moore in 1993 - and get the party back to its core messages. There are, after all, only 20 weeks till polling day.

If a week is a long time in politics, the 20 weeks until the election must seem like an eternity to David Cunliffe. His party is in disarray, his policy launches have been botched, his party's social media efforts (including his own) have been ridiculed, and now his best-performing MP can see that there is not going to be much chance of a seat at the Cabinet table after 20th September.

The wounds within Labour are deep, and mere Band Aids will not suffice. Helen Clark, Phil Goff and David Shearer all resisted major surgey, but now that may be the only option Mr Cunliffe has left.

0 A taste of things to come?

Just imagine it. It's Easter 2021, and Prime Minister David Cunliffe watches the traffic on the Auckland Harbour Bridge from his Herne Bay "mid-range do-up".

PM Cunliffe is still basking in the glory of his election win. Written off after Labour's annihilation in 2014, David Cunliffe reassumed the Labour leadership after the 2017 election when the Grant Robertson/Jacinda Ardern combination was unable to stop John Key winning a fourth term as Prime Minister. Together with his young and enthusiastic deputy leader Phil Goff, Cunliffe was able to cobble together a coalition with the Greens and 75-year-old Winston Peters' Winston First, Second and Third Party, enjoying the slimmest of majorities. But already the cracks are appearing, and there have been calls for a new election due to allegations of vote-buying.

But that's all in the back of the PM's mind as he watches the caravans roll over the bridge. Every New Zealander now owns a caravan, thanks to the Government's extravagant election bribe on the back of a $25 billion surplus delivered by outgoing Finance Minister Sir William English. Cunliffe has tasked Executive Finance Minister and Co-Deputy PM Russel Norman with the task of spending the entire surplus within twelve months, and Norman has approached his role with relish. Better still, they don't have to register them.

And then it happens; is this a taste of things to come in David Cunliffe's New Zealand, the Caravan Capital of the World?