0 Another blow for Labour

Labour's "War Room" will not be a happy place this morning. And breakfast this morning will be hard to digest as Labour's strategists take in a second disastrous poll result in less than 24 hours.

As if the Roy Morgan poll wasn't bad enough, the latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll is out. David Cunliffe described the last Ipsos poll as "rogue", but it isn't; check out the carnage here:

National appears to be tightening its grip on the election, with our latest poll cementing its massive lead.
Today's stuff.co.nz/Ipsos Political poll has National on 54.8 per cent support - a staggering 30-point lead over Labour, but down 1.7 points from our last poll.
John Key is also preferred prime minister among most voters, at 53.7 per cent support to David Cunliffe's 12.8. 

Here's what that looks like in graphical form:

And like the Roy Morgan Confidence Rating, those surveyed by Ipsos are optimistic for the future:

Today's poll, which follows Labour's recent election-year congress and a series of targeted announcements on education policy, shows more decided voters, with Labour clearly benefiting from the change.
But 15.3 per cent of voters still don't know who they will vote for.
That will bring little cheer to Labour, however, as it prepares for its election campaign launch, now just weeks away.
Booming confidence in the economy appears to be buoying National's support, with 64 per cent of those surveyed believing the country was on the right track, the highest in our survey since 2012. Satisfaction with the Government's performance has also held up, suggesting Labour is running out of time to articulate a convincing argument for change.

As we noted in our post last night on the Morgan poll, governments lose elections rather than oppositions winning them. With similar numbers of people expressing confidence in New Zealand's direction over two polls, there is clearly little mood for change. 

We used to joke about Labour's number at the next poll having a 2 in front of it. Now Labour seems to be embedded in the mid-to-low-20's, and even though there has been a very minor correction in this poll compared to the last Fairfax-Ipsos poll, this poll will be a huge dent to Labour's optimism.

The faces in the War Room will be grim. It's hard to remain positive under the pressure of these kinds of numbers, and at least one high-profile Labour staffer was engaging in abusive social media comment last night; a sure sign of pressure. Labour has not only run out of rabbits to pull from hats; it's run out of hats as well!

Conversely John Key will return from his Hawaiian holiday tanned, rested and refreshed, and ready to hit the campaign trail. The 50th Parliament has just two weeks to go, and the election is just over nine weeks away.

The clock is ticking, but for Labour and David Cunliffe, it must sound like a time bomb ticking down. They'll be hunkering down in the War Room today.


 

0 A movie for David, Matt and Clint

Rumour has it that things have been tense today, both in the War Room and at Fraser House, the Labour Party HQ. It probably hasn't helped that Patrick Gower has re-named the War Room as the "Panic Station"!

So here's a moment of comic relief to help David Cunliffe, Grant Robertson, Matt McCarten, Hey Clint and all the rest of Labour's Dad's Army into perspective:

Duncan Garner has suggested that David Cunliffe should offer his resignation, but given Labour's cumbersome method of selecting a leader, it's probably too late from that. We reckon they just have to follow Lance Corporal Jack Jones' advice - Don't Panic!

0 Show us the money Mr Cunliffe

Phil Goff's credibility as Labour leader was blown apart in the "Show me the money" debate in Christchurch in 2011. Here's a reminder in case you've forgotten:

Now, three years later, David Cunliffe is leaving himself and Labour wide open to similar "Show me the money" taunts from John Key and his MP's; 3News reports:

Labour says New Zealanders can have confidence it's getting its numbers right despite dumping a Treasury staff member from their position in the leader's office.

Radio Live revealed a long-standing Treasury secondment has been terminated after a dispute over who should pay their salary.

This now leaves Labour with no independent number-cruncher, but leader David Cunliffe says his office has a strong policy team.

"We have very high grade, quantitative analysis and economic modelling skills in our office," says Mr Cunliffe. "The team is led by the Honourable David Parker, who has my absolute confidence."

Economic Development Minister Steven Joyce says many of Labour's policies don not add up and he is not surprised to hear there has been no input from Treasury.

What has happened here is that Labour has effectively sacked the seconded staff from Treasury, in favour of compiling its own numbers and costing its own policies. In some places that would be called creative accounting.

Pardon our naivety, but we would have thought that having policies independently costed would have been a strong selling point. Instead Labour is going to rely on its own numbers straight from the War Room, and free from any skerrick of independent scrutiny. We can see that working; not!

We reckon that the Two Davids are setting themselves up to fail. But hey; who are we to stop them?

FOOTNOTE: For those readers who aren't familiar with the origins of the "Show me the money" line, check out this video clip which is probably NSFW (not suitable for work); unless you work in Labour's War Room!

0 Super stuff from Imperator Fish

Scott from Imperator Fish has, in the past, been a Labour Party activist. We don't know if he still is, or for that matter, whether Labour still has ANY activists. But that's another matter altogether.

But Scott has published a statement from David Cunliffe this morning which suggests he still has a hotline to the War Room. It begins thus:

I got into politics because I wanted to make a difference. That’s why I’ve been talking to hardworking Kiwis all around the country, listening to what they have to say. The message I’m hearing again and again is that John Key’s government just isn’t listening. Our Prime Minister is totally out of touch.
If there’s one issue that comes up time and time again, it’s the state of our transport infrastructure. Kiwis have had a gutsful of being stuck in traffic. A Labour government will invest heavily in public transport, but we also won’t be afraid to make bold changes to our road rules.
Motorists tell us they’re fed up with being stuck behind heavy trucks who show no consideration for others on the road. That’s why we’re announcing that under a Labour government trucks won’t be allowed to travel in the fast lanes of three and four lane highways. Our policy will keep traffic moving, and reduce congestion on the roads.
But we’re not stopping there. People also tell us that they can’t stand it when they’re merging in traffic, and when some clown in a souped-up car tries to push ahead of everyone else. We’ll make sure everyone merging in traffic follows the rules.
I’ve been travelling up and down this country talking to people, and I hear a lot of complaints. People are fed up. People have had enough. They’re at their wits’ end. They want to know why it is that when their neighbour’s car alarm goes off at three in the morning for the fourth night in a row, the police lack the power to confiscate the vehicle. We’ll fix that.
It simply isn’t good enough for this government to throw up its hands and say “not our problem” every time you go to open a tin of baked beans, only to find that the tin opener fails to cut the last bit, and then you have to get a spoon or a knife to twist the lid up, and then you have to wiggle the lid until it breaks off.
It’s not good enough for John Key and his rich mates to say “we’re not responsible” when you buy a carton of Anchor vanilla custard from the supermarket, take it home, and then open the carton at the top to pour the contents out, only to find that the custard is too thick to come out. Where’s the support for hardworking Kiwis forced to use a pair of scissors to cut the top of the carton off? Who’s looking after ordinary mums and dads forced to scoop the custard out with a spoon?

There's more, but we don't want to steal all Scott's creative content. We're sure he'd rather that you followed the link above, so as to boost his blog traffic.

We reckon that good satire occurs when you can't quite tell whether the writer is being serious or taking the proverbial. Given some of the statements that have come from David Cunliffe's lips in recent months, we reckon that this piece from Imperator Fish is very, very good satire indeed!