Posted by Blogger Name. Category:
Bill English
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David Cunliffe
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Education policy
,
Labour Party
,
Roy Morgan poll
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The Greens
,
Trevor Mallard
David Cunliffe's pre-election holiday got ruined tonight. The latest Roy Morgan poll is out, and it's grim reading both for the Labour Party and its leader. Here's the news Mr Cunliffe won't want to hear:
Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a strong rise in support for National (51%, up 3%) and a substantial lead over a potential Labour/Greens alliance (38.5%, down 1.5%) just more than two months before the New Zealand Election on September 20.
Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little overall with the Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%), Act NZ (0.5%, down 0.5%) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%).
Support for the Labour Party is 23.5% (down 4.5% - the lowest since November 22-24, 2011 – just before the 2011 New Zealand Election), the Greens are 15% (up 3% – the highest since August 26-September 8, 2013), New Zealand First is 6% (up 0.5%) and the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 1.5% (down 1%). Support for the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 0% (down 0.5%).
If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be an easy victory for the National Party and a third term for Prime Minister John Key.
Polling was conducted during the period 30 June to 13 July, so this poll covers the Labour Party conference, Trevor Mallard's Moa de-extinction plan, and Labour's education announcements. Set against that background, a loss of 4.5 percentage points (a drop of around 16% in the space of two weeks) is significant. The phone is off the hook when the Labour Party goes calling.
And far from this being a rogue poll, check out the recent trends:
National are the winners here, but so are the Greens. We've joked over the last few years that the Greens may end up being the leading opposition party, but now they are only 8.5 percentage points behind Labour, and it's no longer a joking matter; it could happen.
There's one final indignity for Labour; read on:
The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up slightly to 142.5pts (up 1pt) with 65.5% (up 0.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 23% (down 0.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. The New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is substantially higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence this week fell to 90pts (down 5.5pts).
Oppositions generally don't win elections; governments get voted out. When almost two thirds of those polled are optimistic, and less than a quarter say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, there seems to be little mood for change.
We suspect that things will be very, very subdued in Labour Party circles tonight and tomorrow. Now that the election is less than three months away, the leadership can be changed without going to the party and the unions. But is there someone who is prepared to take one for the team, and put their personal ambitions to one side to stem the bleeding?
This really is a dreadful result for Labour, and especially for David Cunliffe. Bill English's 2002 record of 20.9% is truly under threat now.
