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David and the GIMPs
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David Cunliffe
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Dog-whistle politics
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Immigration
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Labour Party
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MMP
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Rodney Hide
Rodney Hide could have got away with just one sentence in his Herald on Sunday column this morning; the very first one. Under the headline Lonely Cunliffe must soldier on Hide opines:
The David Cunliffe experiment has failed. Eight months into his leadership Labour is polling below what it was under Phil Goff and David Shearer.
The election is less than four months away.
The danger for Labour is that its poor polling will collapse its vote, as happened to National in 2002. Its low polling became a self-fulfilling and accelerating prophecy. Polls matter.
Labour's unimpressive showing may well cause even more votes to drain across to the Greens and New Zealand First.
That prospect will now be occupying the minds of Labour MPs and activists.
Cunliffe will soldier on. He has no choice. I know what it's like.
You can't give up.
Every day you have to find your smiley, positive face. It's tough. Lonely. Hard.
Hide is right; he knows what it's like. He's even been in the same position as David Cunliffe, as he describes:
Cunliffe has an added burden. His caucus didn't want him. He was thrust on it by party members and the unions. That wouldn't matter if he were succeeding. But he isn't. There will be a lot of "I told you so" going on. The lack of caucus support makes a lonely job even lonelier.
It was always going to be tough going for David Cunliffe when barely a third of the Labour caucus voted for him after the Labour's Got Talent tour last year. For every Labour MP who supported him, there were two who did not. The cards were stacked against him.
Labour is stuck with Mr Cunliffe now, even though he is, as Hide notes, polling worse than his two predecessors. With the election just three months and 20 days away, it's too late to change horses.
And that's not going to make the post-election wrangling any easier, should Labour be in a position to form a coalition. Hide reminds us of the options:
And yet it remains a tight race. Labour could poll badly but still put a government together, with considerable concessions.
The Green's Metiria Turei and Russel Norman would be deputy prime ministers and would dominate policy-making.
Winston Peters would be kingmaker and would demand his pound of flesh.
Hone Harawira would be Minister of Maori Affairs. The Internet Party would be in government being dictated to by Kim Dotcom.
It's not a pretty prospect. And that's Labour's other problem. Its polling puts other parties into the box seat, a prospect that turns off middle voters.
And then there's policy. Cunliffe will be asked about every nutty policy put up by the Greens, New Zealand First, Mana and the Internet Party. Does he support it?
Cunliffe can't dodge the policy bullet. That would add to the uncertainty of voting Labour. If he accepts the policy, he's not in charge. If he dismisses it, he risks a spat with a potential partner.
John Key escapes these problems. National is polling high. Plus he has incumbency. People know what they are getting with National. They can't be so sure with Labour.
It comes back to the polls. They put Cunliffe on the back foot and Key on the front. Cunliffe is now desperate. He needs a lift.
"I just need to push the polls up a bit. I need to change the story ... hmmm. Immigration. That always works for Winston. I'll give that a shot. I will dress it up as housing policy. The party's woolly woofters will be upset. But what the hell? I've got nothing to lose." It's called dog-whistle politics. Sadly for Cunliffe, the only ones who heard it were Labour activists.
Actually, it's good that Rodney Hide wrote his whole piece, and not just the opening sentence. That last paragraph should serve as a huge warning to the Labour Party.
Traditionally the friends of immigrants, Cunliffe's Labour Party risks alienating those who have chosen to make New Zealand home. However you can guarantee that if he has to, David Cunliffe will snuggle up warmly to an immigrant who is wanted by the FBI for alleged copyright offending, racketeering and money-laundering on a Mega scale.
David and the GIMPs; can you imagine what a recipe for disaster that would be? But sadly, thanks to MMP, that's what we could wake up to on September 21st. That's a scary thought, and we thank Rodney Hide for the reminder.
