Posted by Blogger Name. Category:
2014 General Election
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David Cunliffe
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Donghua Liu
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Labour Party
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National Party
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One News/Colmar Brunton poll
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Political polls
The most recent poll cycle ended last night with the One News/Colmar Brunton poll. And for the first time for a while, there are either no rogue polls, or there are five of them.
Colmar Brunton, Roy Morgan, Reid Research, Ipsos and DigiPoll are all saying the same thing; John Key is set to win a third term as prime Minister based on the results in the back half of June. And to make matters even worse for Labour, only the Herald-DigiPoll has Labour ranking in the 30's, and even that's within the margin of error at 30.5%. The other four polls all have Labour with a 2 in front of its number.
Here's the One News-Colmar Brunton result, via TVNZ:
A ONE News poll/Colmar Brunton has found Labour has dropped below 30% support for the first time in two years.
The poll results come after supposed donations from Donghua Liu have dogged Labour leader David Cunliffe this week and taken a toll on the party.
The poll found 29% of respondents supported Labour - the party's lowest polling result since the aftermath of the its disastrous election campaign in March 2012.
"We've had a sustained smear campaign against us for the last couple of weeks. The poll has hardly moved and we're not that concerned about it," says Mr Cunliffe.
The poll also found National dropped one point to 50% popularity and could govern alone with 64 seats.
New Zealand First also dropped one point to 3.8% - below the 5% threshold.
The big winner was Internet-Mana Party on 2.8%.
Internet leader Laila Harre would be likely to return to Parliament on Hone Harawira's coat tails according to the poll.
"We've formed the alliance with Mana that's giving people the confidence to know that their party votes will count and so I think a result over 5% is certainly attainable," says Ms Harre.
The poll also found 10% of respondents choose Mr Cunliffe as their preferred Prime Minister while John Key won 47% of the vote.
David Cunliffe is blaming this result on a "sustained smear campaign" from National. He should not be so quick off the mark, and we'll see who was smearing whom when Donghua Liu gets his financial records from China and passes them to Paul Davidson QC.
Labour has attacked Mr Liu's credibility, causing him to lose face. The Chinese businessman has every motivation to save face, and prove his allegations now, and David Cunliffe will have only himself to blame for throwing down the gauntlet to him.
The National Party conference at the weekend was a positive affair, with the only negatives being repeated warnings about complacency. With party membership in great heart, we are sure that National will succeed in mobilising its vote on September 20th, and Labour may just find that it does not have a mortgage on the so-called "missing million" on which it seems to be basing its chances.
Now attention shifts to the Labour Party "congress" next weekend, although we will hear little from that because the media has been excluded.
The June polls have been truly dreadful for Labour with less than three months remaining until the General Election. There must be some very nervous backbenchers at the moment, watching their jobs and taxpayer-funded salaries wafting away in the winds of public opinion.
