Posted by Blogger Name. Category:
Consumer confidence
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David Cunliffe
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Labour Party
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National Party
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Roy Morgan poll
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The Greens
The Roy Morgan poll certainly has a degree of volatility. But no one expected this today:
Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a strong gain in support for National (52.5%, up 7%) now at their highest since before the last New Zealand Election and well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance (38%, down 6%) – almost matching their performance at the 2011 New Zealand Election at which the two parties polled a combined 38.5%.
Support for Key’s Coalition partners has also improved with the Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ (1%, up 0.5%) and United Future 0% (unchanged).
Support has fallen significantly for all Opposition parties with the Labour Party down 1.5% to 29%, the Greens down 4.5% to 9% (the lowest support for the Greens since September 2011), New Zealand First 4.5% (down 1.5%) and Mana Party 0.5% (down 0.5%). Support for the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (unchanged) and the Internet Party is 0.5% (unchanged).
If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be a landslide victory for the National Party and a third term for Prime Minister John Key.
As much as we would be delighted if this poll was accurate, we suggest that it is as rogue as the one four weeks ago that had the Labour/Green bloc at a combined 45.5%, three points ahead of National.
Take a look at the trend lines in the graph below, and you will see a certain level of fluctuation that is not reflected in other polls:
There is one other noteworthy aspect of this poll however:
The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has also improved considerably – up 8.5pts to 140.5pts with 64.5% (up 4.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 24% (down 4%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
The Morgan confidence rating has improved steadily, with some fortnightly variation, over the past year. At the concurrent poll last year, 55.5% said New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 32.5% who said New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. The nett rating at the end of May last year was 123, so positive sentiment has certainly firmed in the past twelve months as the economic recovery has kicked in.
We're not betting types, but if we were, we certainly wouldn't bet the house on the basis of the Morgan poll. But right at the moment, Labour must be deeply worried that there isn't a single poll showing it with a realistic chance of forming a coalition government. And the Greens will be wondering how they could have lost a third of their support in the last four weeks.
On the plus side, there's no Preferred Prime Minister poll with the Roy Morgan organisation. David Cunliffe will be eternally grateful for that this evening!
